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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) should produce 3.9 million tonnes of cereal this year, up 3.2% from last year. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) disclosed the forecast in a report issued on November 8.

In detail, rice production is projected at 1.6 million tonnes, while stocks of other cereals, including maize, sorghum, and millet, are expected to total 2.3 million tonnes.

While the forecast is promising, the projected output will not be enough to meet domestic demand. The FAO estimates the country must import 770,000 tonnes of cereals in 2024 to meet this demand, against 745,200 tonnes in 2023. According to the UN body, the country remains one of the most food-insecure nations in Africa and Central Africa.

According to the latest analysis from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), approximately 25.6 million people—about 22% of the population—are projected to be acutely food insecure between July and December 2024.

It is worth noting that this year’s grain output forecast compares with a five-year average of around 3.8 million tonnes.

 

Posted On lundi, 11 novembre 2024 16:03 Written by

Kamoa-Kakula, the largest copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), produced a record 41,800 tonnes in October 2024. Ivanhoe Mines, which owns 39.6% of the project, disclosed the figure on November 4. 

This output was 1,453 tonnes more than in August, when a third processing plant started operating. It is also just 8,200 tonnes short of the monthly target needed to reach the mine's full capacity of 600,000 tonnes.

On October 12, Kamoa-Kakula nearly reached its production capacity by producing a record 1,720 tonnes of copper. "This corresponds to an annualized production rate of around 580,000 tonnes of copper, taking availability into account," said Ivanhoe.

However, this increase does not make up for earlier production losses caused by inconsistent electricity supply. As a result, Ivanhoe has lowered its 2024 output forecast from 440,000-490,000 tonnes to 425,000-450,000 tonnes of copper concentrates. Still, this indicates that production could rise further in 2025 after an 18% increase in 2023 to 393,551 tonnes.

Copper prices are also rising. In the first half of 2024, the average price was $9,215.84 per tonne, up from $8,726.90 in the same period last year. Analysts expect prices to average $10,200 per tonne in the last quarter of 2024 and around $10,500 per tonne in 2025. Ivanhoe notes that an average price of $7,000 per tonne over the life of the mine is needed for solid profits.

Sales from Kamoa-Kakula exceeded $2.7 billion in 2023, and they are expected to be higher in 2024. Over the first nine months of this year, sales reached $2.3 billion, including a record $828 million in Q3. This strong performance is attractive to creditors; Kamoa-Kakula has secured $400 million in unsecured financing from DRC financial institutions for expansion. It is also beneficial for the government; by July 2024, Ivanhoe reported that the state had collected over $217 million in taxes on profits and earnings compared to nearly $29 million for all of 2023.

Pierre Mukoko

Posted On vendredi, 08 novembre 2024 16:53 Written by

Congolese PresidentFélix-Antoine Tshisekedi asked his government to include a new component in the second phase of the Local Development Program for 145 territories (PDL 145T).  The leader instructed his team during the November 1 Council of Ministers. This component would develop 2,000 hectares in each territory, with 1,000 hectares set aside for oil palm plantations, translating into creating 145,000 hectares of palm groves across the country.

Tshisekedi stated that the goal of this project is "to boost biodiesel production from palm oil throughout the country." Previously, as instructed by the President, the government financially backed the construction of a biodiesel plant in Vanga, Kwilu province. The plant was built by Chrisnovic Sarl

Two years ago, Julien Paluku, the then-Industry Ministry, claimed that boosting biodiesel production would help the DRC “align with countries fighting global warming”. He added that this initiative is part of the Industrialization Master Plan adopted in 2021, which aims to increase industrial production and reduce imports at a cost of over $58 billion. Paluku spoke while visiting Chrisnovic’s facilities.

Cut fuel imports

According to the Services des Entreprises Pétrolières Congolaises (SEP Congo), petroleum product consumption in the DRC is expected to reach about 4 billion liters by 2025. Currently, most of this demand is met through imports. With an average yield of 3.8 tonnes of palm oil per hectare, the planned 145,000 hectares of palm groves could produce between 626 and 988 million liters of biofuel each year. If producing biodiesel is cost-effective, this project could help reduce fossil fuel use, lower imports, and increase the country’s energy self-sufficiency.

Creating and operating these palm groves will also create many jobs. Worldwide, similar projects have generated between 29,000 and 72,500 direct jobs in plantations and related industries, benefiting local communities.

However, the project's success will depend on its economic viability and effective implementation. The President has assigned the Yangambi Research Center to prepare palm nut seeds for the project. He also asked the Presidential Advisory Council of the National Pact for Agriculture and Food (CCP-PNAA) to support the development of these palm groves in all 145 territories. Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi urged the government to actively work on this project and provide "tax incentives" to ensure its success.

Challenges

The minutes of the Council of Ministers do not indicate whether the President's directives are based on a feasibility study for the project. However, spreading it across 145 territories could be challenging, especially given the poor quality of the country's road network, which complicates travel and raises transport costs.

Additionally, there is limited information about the second phase of PDL 145T, which includes integrating the palm grove project for biodiesel production. After a meeting with Planning Minister Guylain Nymb, Finance Minister Doudou Fwamba, and UNDP Africa Director Ahunna Eziakonwa, it was announced that this phase will begin in early 2025.

In August 2023, then-Planning Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka, now Prime Minister, estimated that this phase would primarily focus on constructing and rehabilitating agricultural feeder roads for $1.25 billion. It is unclear if this estimate still stands or how the funding for this second phase will be secured.

Anticipating potential criticism from environmental groups that view industrial palm cultivation as a cause of deforestation, the President announced plans to create 145,000 hectares of palm groves alongside establishing a 100,000 km² protected area of primary forest. This reserve, called "Couloir Vert, Kivu-Kinshasa," will be located between the eastern and western parts of the country.

Pierre Mukoko

Posted On jeudi, 07 novembre 2024 16:46 Written by

Orange DRC will provide telecom services to MMG Limited, a subsidiary of China Minmetals Corporation (CMC), telecom services at the Kinsevere copper mine in Haut-Katanga province. MMG announced the related agreement on November 1, 2024. 

According to the deal, the telecom operator will supply MMG mobile phones, data transmission, and high-speed internet services. In partnership with Huawei, they will also provide an advanced eLTE private network solution for high-speed wireless communication.

MMG Limited plans to “use the Kinsevere mine as a platform to combine the technological advantages of Orange and Huawei with CMC's industrial capabilities and local expertise”, to “progressively build a digital, smart, and environmentally friendly project in Africa”.

The high-speed telecom services will enhance mining operations by improving team communication, allowing real-time monitoring of activities, and providing alerts in case of danger. These technologies will help quickly locate workers during emergencies and coordinate rescue efforts, improving safety on site.

Operational efficiency is crucial for intelligent mining. The focus is on optimizing human, material, and energy resources to meet production goals while reducing costs and environmental impacts.

MMG Limited reported that the Kinsevere mine produced 21,278 tonnes of copper cathodes in the first half of 2024. Sales increased by 6% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching $188.3 million, mainly due to higher copper prices. For 2024, MMG Limited aims to extract between 39,000 and 44,000 tonnes of copper cathodes from Kinsevere.

Muriel Edjo

Posted On mercredi, 06 novembre 2024 16:44 Written by

In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the National Parliament approved the 2025 finance draft bill. Approved on November 1, the draft bill amounts to 49,846.8 billion Congolese francs (about $17.5 billion). This is 21.6% more than the 2024 budget–40,986 billion Congolese francs (approximately $14.3 billion). 

The new budget was presented by Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka on October 31. 

In her presentation, the PM highlighted key priorities to bolster the country’s economy and infrastructure. 

Under the new budget, investment appropriations should be up 18.2%, raising their share of the overall budget to 48.4% in 2025 from 15.1% in 2024. Security spending has been raised by 25.2%, to tackle the ongoing crisis affecting parts of the population, especially in the eastern region.

The new budget allocated 16.4% more funds to agriculture than last year. Meanwhile, rural development will receive a 13.7% boost to create economic opportunities outside major urban areas and improve local infrastructure.

"This budget is our commitment to a diversified economy and strengthening social and economic infrastructure," said PM Tuluka. She stressed that the budget will support the government's Action Program, which focuses on six strategic pillars tackling structural issues in the DRC.

Last June, the Congolese government unveiled a $93 billion five-year plan for 2024-2028, targeting economic diversification, land protection, territorial planning, and sustainable environmental management key priorities for the DRC amid climate change and development challenges.

To finance these goals, the government plans strict fiscal and administrative reforms, including broadening the tax base and combating fraud and tax evasion to increase internal resources and ensure stable funding for its programs.

It is worth noting the DRC currently faces various economic and security challenges. Despite these issues, growth prospects remain positive. The Congolese government forecasts a growth rate of 5.7% for 2025, slightly down from the estimated 6.4% for 2024. These projections are more optimistic than those from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which expects growth of 5% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2024.

Charlène N’dimon, Ecofin Agency

Posted On mardi, 05 novembre 2024 18:39 Written by

Africell Holding Limited, a telco present in various African countries including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), raised $300 million in the international capital market last month. This funding came from a covered bond issue that will mature in 2029. The offering was popular among investors, with bids totaling $550 million.

Africell will use the money to refinance its existing debt and boost its investment capacity, especially in the DRC, where the company has strong growth potential. The financing package also includes a $30 million revolving credit facility yet to be used. This deal improves Africell's financial position by reducing short-term cash needs and supporting sustainable growth. The funds will help lower operating costs and manage currency risks, which are important issues in the DRC, and Angola, another market where Africell operates.

Besides the DRC and Angola, Africell is well-established in markets like Gambia and Sierra Leone. Although the DRC is the telco’s fourth-largest market, the country’s size and increasing demand for mobile and internet services present major opportunities for expansion.

A year ago, Africell announced plans to expand into three new provinces in eastern DRC: North Kivu, South Kivu, and Tanganyika. The company wants about four million new customers in these areas where access to mobile networks is poor.

The recent fundraising was arranged by Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, and Standard Chartered. Part of the proceeds will help enhance Africell's network infrastructure, diversify its financing sources, and increase sales while ensuring financial stability for future investments in the DRC and other African countries.

Georges Auréole Bamba

Posted On mardi, 05 novembre 2024 17:07 Written by

Several experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). They are there to finalize two new programs valued at $2.5 billion. According to the chief of the IMF mission, Calixte Ahokposi, concerned parties must agree on the specific objectives of the new partnership. This is what will determine the disbursement of related funds.

To achieve these goals, the government must make decisions that will affect the daily lives of millions of Congolese citizens and foreign residents. In their June 2024 letter requesting the two new programs, the government and central bank outlined commitments based on their views of the country's economic trends and their goals for improving living conditions.

Some commitments are technical, such as managing economic data and increasing communication with IMF experts. Others involve reforms that could directly impact people's lives, like controlling inflation, enabling banks to lend more, and securing funds for building roads, schools, and hospitals while creating jobs.

The ongoing talks also focus on securing about $1 billion to finance policies that tackle climate change and related issues, like flooding and lower agricultural production.

Fuel prices

Fuel prices are also on the table. According to IMF and World Bank experts, subsidizing fuel is a poor use of public funds because it mostly benefits the rich. With living costs rising, authorities have chosen not to impose new taxes and have instead reduced fuel prices.

The talks with the IMF will also address managing exceptional expenses related to security issues along the borders with Rwanda and Uganda. Initially projected at 2,247 billion Congolese francs (CF), this security spending is expected to rise to CF4,442 billion (about $1.5 billion) by the end of 2024. This is roughly 50% of the total public sector salary budget ($2.85 billion) and 80% of the amount set for the 2019 master plan to transform Kinshasa. The government is committed to auditing this exceptional spending.

Finally, discussions will include tax exemptions. In 2023, the government acknowledged it had waived around $2 billion in various taxes, with 60% benefiting companies, especially in mining. While these exemptions aim to help companies invest and maintain liquidity, follow-up is needed to see if they help create jobs for the Congolese people.

At the end of their mission, IMF experts will prepare a report on the commitments made and their timelines for implementation. The DRC government hopes to reach an agreement before the end of 2024 so it can start 2025 with clarity on its development strategies. This includes parts of its national development plan for 2025, the second phase of its territorial development plan, its public investment program, various donor-supported programs, and a climate response plan estimated at $58 billion over the next six years.

Georges Auréole Bamba

Posted On lundi, 04 novembre 2024 16:53 Written by

Goldman Sachs scaled up its 2025 forecast for copper prices, from $10,100 to $10,160 per tonne average. The revision is largely due to recent economic stimulus measures in China that are boosting demand for copper.

A few weeks ago, the analysis firm Fastmarkets estimated that copper prices could average $10,265 per tonne this quarter. This prediction integrates China's 3.95 trillion yuan ($560 billion) stimulus plan announced in September to tackle the slowing economy, paired with the interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

It’s still unclear how these forecasts will affect mining revenues in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world’s second-largest copper producer in 2023. Several factors must be considered, including contracts between the government and mining companies, agreements between those companies and their customers, and the country’s copper production levels.

In its 2025 Finance Bill presented to Parliament, the DRC government predicts a copper price of $7,909.57. The government noted that copper prices rose from $8,726.9 per tonne in the first half of 2023 to $9,215.84 per tonne during the same period in 2024, a 5.6% increase. Goldman Sachs' forecast thus exceeds the government projection by $2,250.43.

It should be recalled, however, that earlier this month, Ivanhoe Mines lowered its production forecast for Kamoa-Kakula, the largest copper mine in the DRC. The company attributed the change to instability in the power grid, among others. Ivanhoe now aims for a maximum production of 450,000 tonnes of copper concentrate in 2024, down from its previous target of 490,000 tonnes.

Kamoa-Kakula is among the mines that helped boost the DRC's copper outputs and mining revenues in recent years. While plans have been announced to address power supply issues by 2025, it remains uncertain how effectively these will be implemented and how they will impact next year’s production.

Louis-Nino Kansoun 

Posted On mercredi, 30 octobre 2024 16:21 Written by

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is managing the ongoing mpox epidemic. According to the Ministry of Health, for the week ending October 19, 2024, only 17 out of 688 suspected cases were confirmed, with one death reported. This results in a case-fatality rate of 0.0014%, down from 1.2% the previous week.

Thanks to support from several donors, the country has obtained vaccines for its first vaccination campaign. However, experts from the World Bank say there are still many needs. "The available vaccines cover no more than 10% of the country's needs. This situation is the same for communication and community-based surveillance," one World Bank expert noted.

To tackle this crisis, the government announced a special intervention of $10 million, but recent data shows that only $2.5 million has been disbursed so far. How well the country can control the disease will impact budget execution not just in late 2024 but also in 2025.

Dealing with diseases like mpox requires significant spending on vaccines and logistics, part in foreign currency. However, international aid is often slow to arrive. During the Covid-19 pandemic, for example, the DRC had to exceed its health fund commitments by 1,348%.

While the country is currently stable, with foreign exchange reserves covering 3.4 months of imports and external public debt at 9.8% of GDP in 2023, rising population needs and security issues in the northeast are putting pressure on the budget. Although donors can provide additional resources, these have often been insufficient.

The recent decline in mpox cases is positive news for budget management since it reduces the risk of funds being redirected from other important areas, like public investment, to fight the disease.

Georges Auréole Bamba

 

Posted On mercredi, 30 octobre 2024 07:59 Written by

Moody's is optimistic about the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) growth prospects through 2028. "We expect the DRC economy to continue to grow with an average real GDP growth rate of around 6% until 2028," the US rating agency stated in a report obtained by Bankable. According to the agency, the mining sector will mainly drive this growth;  especially copper, a mineral crucial for the global energy transition.  and for which the DRC is Africa's leading producer.

Inflation is also under control, with Moody's predicting it will drop below 10% by the end of 2025, down from 23.8% at the end of 2023. This decrease would improve purchasing power for Congolese citizens and stabilize the economy, making it more attractive to foreign investors and boosting domestic spending.

The DRC's economic growth is supported by various initiatives. In the mining sector, which drives the economy, transition minerals are in high demand, with prices exceeding initial forecasts. The government strives to keep inflation in check while maintaining growth, aided by a trade surplus that supports the national currency.

Besides the mining sector’s boom, the Congolese government plans to boost growth through public investment. A proposed public spending project of over $3.7 billion from 2025 to 2028 is currently under discussion in parliament and aims to improve infrastructure. If approved, this project could be fully funded by revenues from the extractive sector, which totaled $5.7 billion in 2023. Also, the Development Plan covering the country’s 145 territories aims to stimulate local economies. The second phase of this plan is being discussed at the moment. 

While the DRC needs to improve its ability to mobilize internal resources, its low public debt, just 15% of GDP, is a major advantage. The figure is well below the sub-Saharan African average of 58%. This allows it to raise capital internationally on favorable terms, supporting investments in key areas like agriculture, housing, and energy.

The DRC is a nation with great potential and resources. However, it could achieve inclusive and sustainable growth if it overcomes its challenges. Economic diversification and infrastructure improvement are priorities, and with effective policies and a clear vision, these goals are achievable. Moody's optimism reflects the DRC's resilience and potential for growth.

Georges Auréole Bamba

Posted On mardi, 29 octobre 2024 13:58 Written by
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