MINING (167)
- Ivanhoe Mines said total investment in the Kamoa-Kakula copper smelter reached $1.1 billion.
- The figure exceeded the $700 million estimate announced in 2021.
- Power infrastructure, including Inga II rehabilitation, accounted for a significant share of costs.
Ivanhoe Mines said total investment in the new smelter at the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex reached $1.1 billion, as the company announced the first production of copper anodes.
The company linked the start-up of the smelter to the full capital deployment in a statement accompanying the production milestone.
Robert Friedland, founder and executive co-chairman of Ivanhoe Mines, said the event marked “the culmination of a $1.1 billion investment.”
The $1.1 billion figure exceeded the capital cost estimate Ivanhoe Mines disclosed during the project’s early development stages.
In a statement dated Nov. 18, 2021, Ivanhoe Mines said expected capital expenditure for the smelter stood “in the region of $700 million,” and the company said operating cash flows from Kamoa-Kakula would fund the project.
Ivanhoe Mines did not explicitly state the reasons for the gap between the 2021 estimate and the 2026 investment figure.
However, the $1.1 billion total appeared to include ancillary infrastructure costs, even though the company built the smelter according to the same design outlined in 2021.
Ivanhoe Mines constructed a direct-to-blister smelter with nominal capacity of 500,000 tonnes per year of blister copper, alongside sulfuric acid by-product production and emissions standards aligned with those of the International Finance Corporation, part of the World Bank Group.
To enable initial anode production, Ivanhoe Mines not only built the smelter but also installed an uninterruptible power supply system.
The company said the 60-megawatt system could provide up to two hours of instant backup power, protecting the smelter from voltage fluctuations on the Democratic Republic of Congo’s national grid.
In parallel, the company required 50 megawatts of clean electricity to commission the smelter.
To secure that supply, Ivanhoe Mines rehabilitated turbine five at the Inga II hydroelectric dam, which has total installed capacity of 178 megawatts.
Kamoa Copper, owner of the Kamoa-Kakula complex, estimated the investment at $450 million, including ongoing grid modernization works.
This article was initially published in French by Boaz Kabeya
Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum
- NIU Invest granted Critical Metals a £2.1 million ($2.84 million) convertible loan.
- The funding will support operations at the Molulu copper-cobalt project in the DRC.
- Critical Metals targets first mineral sales from Molulu by mid-2026.
NIU Invest SE, the majority shareholder of Critical Metals, has granted the company a loan of £2.1 million, equivalent to about $2.84 million, to finance its activities, notably at the Molulu copper and cobalt project in the Haut-Katanga province of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The company announced the financing on December 31, 2025. The loan has an 18-month maturity and carries an annual interest rate of 10%, payable at the end of the term.
According to the disclosed terms, the loan takes the form of a convertible bond. This structure allows NIU Invest SE to convert the loan into equity in Critical Metals at any time and under certain conditions.
NIU Invest has used similar instruments to gradually increase its stake in the company. Its participation has now reached 69.62%, giving it effective control over Critical Metals.
The financing provides short-term relief for Critical Metals, whose Molulu project—70% owned by the company—has yet to generate commercial sales. The company remains loss-making.
For the financial year ended June 30, 2025, Critical Metals reported losses of about £2.4 million. This marked a reduction of roughly 13% compared with the previous financial year, when losses stood near £2.8 million.
According to the financial report, the improvement primarily reflects a reduction of about 25% in salary expenses. The company also implemented significant workforce cuts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, particularly among technical staff.
Cost-cutting measures extended to senior management. Since January 1, 2025, remuneration for the chief executive position has been reduced by as much as 30%.
First Sales Expected in 2026
Alongside its financial restructuring, Critical Metals has undergone several leadership changes. Russell Fryer stepped down as chief executive on September 4, 2025, and Ali Farid Khwaja replaced him. Khwaja subsequently resigned on December 16, 2025.
Since then, Danilo Lange has served as interim chief executive.
In its announcement, the company described Lange as an internationally experienced executive with more than 25 years of experience across the mining, consumer goods and marketing sectors. He previously held senior roles at companies including Yahoo and Red Bull and served as chief executive of Auriant Mining AB, a Swedish mining company listed on Nasdaq in the United States.
Critical Metals said his profile suits the company’s transition phase, as the board continues its search for a permanent chief executive.
The loan from NIU Invest again signals the majority shareholder’s confidence in the Molulu project, despite the company’s continued financial losses since launch.
The funding secures short-term operational financing while the company prepares for a ramp-up in activity.
According to Critical Metals’ most recent report, the first mineral sales from the Molulu mine are now expected by mid-2026.
This article was initially published in French by Timothée Manoke
Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum
- The mines minister partially and temporarily lifted the suspension on artisanal copper-cobalt processing entities in Lualaba.
- A compliance review found all processing entities in violation of the Mining Code and regulations.
- Authorities will condition any permanent lifting on full regulatory compliance.
The Democratic Republic of Congo partially eased restrictions on artisanal copper-cobalt processing in Lualaba, the country’s main hub for artisanal activity in the sector.
Mines Minister Louis Watum Kabamba lifted “partially and temporarily” the suspension of mining and commercial activities for artisanal mineral processing entities in the copper-cobalt value chain operating in Lualaba. The ministry announced the decision in a statement published on January 5, 2026, following compliance inspections conducted in Kolwezi.
“At the end of the commission’s work (established on December 26), organized into three sub-commissions (administrative and legal, technical, and traceability and compliance), the commission found violations of the Mining Code and Mining Regulations by all processing entities,” the statement said.
The minister framed the decision as a transitional measure, allowing operators time to regularize their status. “The maintenance or definitive lifting of the suspension will remain conditional on the effective regularization of each processing entity,” the document added.
#RDC_MINES | COMMUNIQUÉ DE PRESSE pic.twitter.com/06YGkQgwcv
— Ministère des Mines - RDC (@MinMinesRDC) January 5, 2026
According to the statement, authorities will notify each processing entity within 72 hours of publication. The individual notices will detail corrective measures required to address administrative, technical, and traceability breaches and will specify, where applicable, financial penalties payable under current mining law.
However, the partial lifting does not apply to Luilu Resources. The ministry said the company failed to present credible documentation on technical operations and mineral traceability during the review. Authorities ordered the company to appear again before the commission in Lubumbashi within three days, with the required documents, or face sanctions proportionate to the seriousness of the violations.
Transitional Measure for Haut-Katanga
Authorities also adopted a transitional measure for Haut-Katanga, another province with significant artisanal copper-cobalt activity. Pending inspection results, authorities authorized processing entities on a temporary basis to receive minerals already present at legal or tolerated artisanal sites.
Provincial services will supervise the operation, including the provincial mining division, the provincial directorate of SAEMAPE, the provincial ministry of Mines, and representatives of cooperatives and traders.
Since December 19, 2025, authorities have suspended activities of all artisanal mineral processing entities in the copper-cobalt sector nationwide. The mines minister said the suspension forms part of the implementation of the roadmap of the National Commission to Combat Mining Fraud.
The measure aims to clean up the artisanal mineral supply chain and ensure compliance with OECD due diligence principles and the national traceability manual.
This article was initially published in French by Ronsard Luabeya
Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum
The Democratic Republic of Congo’s regulator has extended the deadline for using cobalt export quotas to March 31, 2026, from the last quarter of 2025, according to a statement reported by Reuters on Wednesday.
The move eases uncertainty caused by bottlenecks in DRC’s new cobalt export process. After imposing an embargo on shipments of the battery metal in February, Kinshasa introduced an export quota system in October. Under that system, 18,125 metric tons of cobalt were allocated for export between October and December 2025.
Several companies were unable to use their quotas because the regulatory framework does not allow the transfer or deferral of shipments. Finance Minister Doudou Fwamba said recently that cobalt exports had “resumed,” without providing details on volumes or companies involved.
CMOC, a major cobalt producer in DRC with a fourth-quarter 2025 export quota of 6,650 tons, said the first shipments were unlikely to depart before January. Administrative procedures extended into the final weeks of 2025, including sampling under the new quota system and customs payments.
While the extension removes uncertainty over unused 2025 quotas, other challenges remain for the Congolese government, which must show it can implement the new framework sustainably. The February embargo, imposed amid a surplus market that had weighed on prices, coincided with a surge in cobalt prices in 2025.
Even if the policy succeeds in supporting prices, Kinshasa must manage the risk of substitution. Some analysts warn that restrictions on Congolese supply could prompt manufacturers to accelerate efforts to reduce cobalt use in electric vehicle batteries.
Emiliano Tossou
Copper prices neared $13,000 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange on Monday, climbing as much as 6.6% to $12,960, Bloomberg reported. Prices later steadied around $12,920 in Asian trading.
The metal has gained more than 15% this month, driven by expectations that the United States could impose tariffs on refined copper. Ahead of any such measures, traders have stepped up shipments to the U.S. market, tightening inventories elsewhere. On Comex, U.S. copper futures have been trading at a premium to LME prices.
The rally follows comments earlier this month from analysts at Citigroup, who said copper prices could rise above $13,000 a tonne by the second quarter of 2026. “We remain convinced that copper has upside into 2026 amid several supportive tailwinds, including improving fundamentals and a more favourable macroeconomic environment,” the bank said, forecasting a 2.5% increase in global end-use consumption next year.
Similar views were expressed by Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at J.P. Morgan. “All in all, we think these unique dynamics of disjointed inventory and acute supply disruptions tightening the copper market add up to a bullish set up for copper, and are enough to push prices above $12,000/mt in the first half of 2026,” he said.
Concerns over global copper supply have intensified following several incidents this year. In May, Ivanhoe Mines, which operates one of the world’s largest copper projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, reported a seismic event that prompted it to cut its production guidance for 2025 and 2026. While the company had initially targeted output of at least 500,000 tonnes in 2025, it now expects production to peak at around 420,000 tonnes, a level also projected for 2026.
Meanwhile, a landslide at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, the world’s second-largest copper operation, forced Freeport-McMoRan to slash its planned 2026 output by 35%.
Louis-Nino Kansoun
The Democratic Republic of Congo has suspended the activities of all artisanal copper-cobalt mineral processing entities across the country since December 19, 2025, under an order signed by Mines Minister Louis Watum Kabamba.
The decision directly targets the downstream segment that makes illegal mining economically viable. A processing entity is defined as an individual business, commercial company, or mining cooperative that uses mineralogical and/or metallurgical processes to produce marketable mineral products, such as concentrates or refined metals. These entities are authorized to source minerals from artisanal miners, traders, approved mining cooperatives, and even from operating mining concessions.
According to the order, the suspension is a precautionary measure aimed at enabling a comprehensive audit. An ad hoc commission has been established to verify the administrative, legal, and technical compliance of all processing entities, as well as the traceability and lawful origin of the minerals they process.
While a separate order will define the commission’s composition and operating procedures, the current text sets out a tight timeline. Suspended entities have ten days from notification to submit documentation proving compliance with legal and regulatory requirements, along with evidence of the lawful origin of their supplies. The commission will then have fifteen days from receipt of a complete file to conduct its review and must submit its report to the minister within seven working days after the audit ends. Any resumption of activity will depend on operators’ ability to demonstrate compliance.
The mines minister said the decision was justified by findings that several processing entities were sourcing minerals from industrial concessions without authorization from rights holders, fueling encroachment and fraud. He also said these entities were failing to comply with OECD due diligence standards, undermining the international credibility of Congolese mineral products.
Decision welcomed by industrial miners
The move has been welcomed by several industrial mining operators. A member of the Chamber of Mines of the Federation of Congolese Enterprises said many processing entities violate regulations and enrich criminal networks involved in mineral theft. The federation estimates that Eurasian Resources Group alone has lost close to $3 billion due to the spoliation of its deposits.
Beyond easing pressure on industrial concessions and restoring the credibility of Congolese exports, the measure could also strengthen the role of the state-owned Enterprise Générale du Cobalt. To enable its Gécamines subsidiary to fully exercise its legal monopoly over the trade in artisanal strategic minerals such as cobalt, President Félix Tshisekedi had called in June for strict enforcement of rules and sanctions against plants and processing entities illegally purchasing artisanal cobalt outside the EGC framework.
In the short term, the suspension could disrupt the artisanal mining ecosystem and create social tensions, particularly for cooperatives and local traders. The shutdown of artisanal copper and cobalt processing units is expected to cause an immediate loss of market outlets for the sector, with the overall impact depending on the state’s ability to enforce the decision.
Although artisanal mining contributes only marginally to national copper and cobalt output, it is estimated to employ between 1.5 million and 2 million Congolese people and indirectly support more than 10 million livelihoods, according to EGC estimates.
Pierre Mukoko
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Company is assessing the economic viability of copper at Bisie North
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Ongoing metallurgical tests target copper zones above tin mineralization
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Tin remains the main exploration focus at the project
UK-based Rome Resources is assessing the economic potential of copper mining at its Bisie North project in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In an update published on December 23, 2025, the company said it is on track to finalize studies under way, at a site where tin remains, at this stage, the primary exploration target.
Over the course of the year, Rome Resources commissioned metallurgical work to assess processing methods that could allow for the economic recovery of significant copper resources located above the tin zones at Mount Agoma. The first phase of this work is nearing completion, with results expected soon, according to the company.
Published in late October 2025, Rome Resources’ maiden resource estimate highlighted the polymetallic nature of Bisie North. The estimate identified 10,600 tons of tin and 46,900 tons of copper. It is this copper potential that the company is now seeking to better develop through the metallurgical work currently in progress.
The studies involve a series of tests designed to assess the conditions under which copper extraction could be economically viable. This includes identifying the most suitable processing method and evaluating the quality of the final product.
By focusing on the copper resources at Bisie North, Rome Resources is also positioning itself in a strategic market. Copper is essential to key sectors such as electronics, renewable energy, and electric mobility and is now widely regarded as a critical metal. In this context, the International Energy Agency has warned of a potential supply shortfall by 2035, driven by demand expected to rise sharply.
Rome Resources’ ability to capitalize on these opportunities will depend on the outcome of the ongoing work, with no indication at this stage of its likelihood of success. In the meantime, the company plans to continue exploration activities, including the launch of a new drilling campaign in the first quarter of 2026.
Aurel Sèdjro Houenou, Ecofin Agency
Chinese mining group CMOC plans to raise its total investment in the Democratic Republic of Congo to $8 billion, the Ministry of Mines said.
The plan was announced on Dec. 16, 2025, during a meeting in Kinshasa between CMOC representatives and Mines Minister Louis Kabamba Watum, according to a statement from the ministry. CMOC operates the Tenke Fungurume Mining (TFM) and Kisanfu Mining (KFM) projects in the country.
Details on the scope and timeline of the planned investments were not disclosed. CMOC said it intends to deepen its engagement in the DRC, citing the country’s mining potential and an improving business climate.
In October 2025, the group’s board approved a $1.08 billion expansion of the Kisanfu mine, aimed at increasing annual copper output by about 100,000 tonnes. Construction is expected to take two years, with commissioning targeted for late 2027.
CMOC acquired an 80% stake in Tenke Fungurume Mining for $2.65 billion in 2016 and a 95% stake in Kisanfu Mining for about $550 million in 2020. The group has since made additional investments to expand production capacity at both sites, bringing total spending to more than $3 billion, based on its annual reports.
During the meeting, CMOC also presented its annual production figures, reporting roughly 700,000 tonnes of copper from its Congolese operations in the 2025 financial year, making it one of the country’s leading copper producers.
The company flagged several operational challenges, including power supply shortages and encroachment by artisanal miners on some concessions, which have disrupted operations and fuelled local tensions.
Watum said coordinated solutions would be pursued with all stakeholders and stressed the need to involve local communities in addressing concession encroachments. He also urged CMOC to invest in local power generation to reduce reliance on electricity imports from neighbouring countries.
The talks also touched on recent cooperation agreements between the DRC and other international partners, including the United States. The minister said these partnerships do not pose a threat to foreign investors, including Chinese companies, or to existing Sino-Congolese cooperation.
Ronsard Luabeya
The Mining Registry (CAMI) of the Democratic Republic of Congo has suspended new applications for mining and quarry exploration rights, effective Dec. 17, 2025. The decision was announced in a statement issued on Dec. 15, 2025. The suspension will remain in effect until further notice, as no reopening date has been set.
CAMI said the measure does not affect operations under existing rights. Applications to convert or renew mining rights, as well as registrations of assignments, leases, options, and other related transactions, will continue to be processed.
According to the registry, the decision forms part of an effort to clean up the mining cadastre. The aim is to improve the accuracy and management of the cadastral system.
The work builds on measures launched last July. A report published in August 2025 said those measures enabled the Congolese state to recover 594 mining and quarry titles. These titles covered 37,253 mining squares, representing a total area of 31,648 square kilometers, larger than Belgium.
The report also cited the administrative regularization of 210 mining rights that had been under prolonged force majeure, covering 18,709 mining squares. These titles were reclassified as active, restoring the fiscal, social, and technical obligations of the companies concerned.
Ronsard Luabeya
The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has reminded mining companies operating in the southeastern provinces of Haut-Katanga and Lualaba of their obligation to comply with new rules governing fuel use in the sector.
In a letter dated December 10, 2025, and signed by the Ministers of Hydrocarbons, Acacia Bandubola Mbongo, and Mines, Louis Watum Kabamba, the authorities said the reminder followed repeated refusals by several mining operators to grant access to their sites to inspectors from the Petroleum Product Marking Brigade.
According to the letter, the inspectors were seeking to verify fuel stocks in order to ensure that state-subsidized petroleum products intended for household consumption were not being diverted for industrial use at mining sites.
Under Article 22 of the 2025 Finance Law, fuels intended for land and aviation use in mining activities, including gasoline, kerosene, diesel, fuel oil, lamp oil and liquefied petroleum gas, or supplied to mining companies and their subcontractors, are excluded from all public subsidies. They are also no longer eligible for exemptions from import duties and taxes, notably customs duties and value-added tax.
To ensure enforcement of the measure, mining companies are now required to source their fuel supplies under customs supervision and to use products subject to specific molecular marking. This marking allows subsidized fuels sold at service stations to be clearly distinguished from fuels imported for industrial use.
Since the measure took effect in August, the Directorate General of Customs and Excise has suspected certain mining operators of attempting to circumvent the system. As a result, unannounced inspections were launched by the Petroleum Product Marking Brigade. However, between September 7 and 12, several inspection teams were denied access to fuel storage facilities at some mining sites in Lualaba province.
These incidents prompted the ministers to formally remind mining companies of their obligations and to call for full cooperation with inspection authorities.
In the letter, the ministers said that inspections by the Molecular Marking Brigade will now be conducted jointly with administrative checks by the hydrocarbons authorities. These inspections will focus in particular on installed fuel storage capacity, monthly fuel import and consumption volumes, the availability of customs declarations, and the validity of authorizations covering fuel importation, transport and storage for self-consumption.
According to Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the National Economy Daniel Mukoko Samba, the reform has already had a significant impact on public revenue. Fuel imports generated more than 63 billion Congolese francs, or about $22 million, in August 2025, compared with just 4 billion francs, or roughly $1.5 million, the previous month, representing a more than fifteen-fold increase.
Boaz Kabeya
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With around two weeks remaining in 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo is still piloting a new cobalt export procedure under its quota system. Many mining companies now say they will be unable to use their full annual allocations and are questioning what will happen to any unused quotas.
Under an Oct. 10, 2025 decision by the board of the Regulatory and Control Authority for Strategic Mineral Substances Markets (ARECOMS), which set the conditions for obtaining, allocating, and executing cobalt export quotas, base quotas per operator are neither transferable nor carried over into a future period. The decision states that any monthly export quota not used by the last day of the month in question is considered lost and automatically reallocated to ARECOMS’ annual strategic quota.
The decision includes an exception for this year. Monthly quotas per operator are exceptionally cumulative until Dec. 31, 2025, but no carryover from one year to the next is permitted. If applied strictly, companies unable to export their full 2025 quotas would forfeit them. Industry representatives say this would be unfair, arguing that the delays are not the operators’ fault.
Asked to comment, ARECOMS told Bloomberg that quotas from the last quarter would not be lost by mining companies and that it was examining all implementation options to limit the impact. The U.S. media also said DRC authorities had allowed producers to retain their 2025 quotas. However, as of the end of last week, several industry players said they had received no official notification to that effect.
Cobalt exports were due to resume on Oct. 16 but remained blocked for more than a month due to the lack of formal implementing rules required under ARECOMS directives. The interministerial Mines and Finance circular setting out the practical arrangements for cobalt exports was published only on Dec. 2. According to the Mining Chamber of the Federation of Enterprises of Congo (FEC), the document does not address concerns raised by cobalt exporters.
Authorities have since launched a testing phase, which began last week with a small shipment of cobalt belonging to Glencore, the owner of Kamoto Copper Company (KCC) and Mutanda Mining (MUMI) in Greater Katanga. “All means are being deployed to finalize the testing phase in the coming days, which will mark the resumption of cobalt exports from the DRC,” ARECOMS told Bloomberg.
Operators hope that once this phase is completed, the regulator will agree to talks to clarify ambiguities in the new system. According to industry sources, as of the end of last week, Mines Minister Louis Watum Kabamba had not responded to correspondence sent by the Mining Chamber on Dec. 4 requesting a working session under the consultation mechanism established in October.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, ARECOMS authorized the export of 18,125 tonnes of cobalt. CMOC and Glencore hold 58% of these volumes, with allocations of 6,500 tonnes and 3,925 tonnes respectively. Annual production is expected to reach nearly 200,000 tonnes.
Pierre Mukoko & Ronsard Luabeya
The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) said in a statement dated December 5, 2025, that it had issued a Letter of Intent to Mota-Engil, signaling its readiness to help finance the rehabilitation and operation of the Dilolo-Sakania railway line in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
The move suggests that the Portuguese construction group is emerging as the frontrunner to secure the concession for the Congolese section of the Lobito Corridor, which links the DRC’s mining regions to the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola.
Mota-Engil, together with Trafigura and Vecturis, forms the Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR) consortium. The consortium has held a 30-year concession since July 2022 to operate and modernize the Angolan stretch of the corridor. The DRC, however, has not yet publicly announced who will be awarded the concession on its territory.
“What we are trying to do now is get the work started,” said Deputy Prime Minister for Transport Jean-Pierre Bemba on November 26 during a panel at the Makutano Forum. He said discussions are advancing within the strategic steering committee that brings together the DRC, the United States and the European Union.
With backing from the United States, Mota-Engil appears well-positioned in the process. The DFC has said it is prepared to mobilize up to 1 billion dollars for the project. The Dilolo-Sakania rail line is expected to become the main route for Congolese exports to the United States. Under a strategic agreement signed on December 4 between Kinshasa and Washington, public enterprises are expected over the next five years to send 50 percent of their copper, 30 percent of their cobalt and 90 percent of their zinc through the Lobito Corridor.
Economic Stakes
Feasibility studies presented in September by a joint European Union-U.S. expert mission estimate the cost of rehabilitating the Dilolo-Sakania line and extending it toward the Zambian border at about 1.1 billion dollars.
Current financing commitments already surpass that amount. In addition to the 1 billion dollars being considered by the DFC, the European Investment Bank is ready to contribute 500 million euros, and the World Bank is prepared to provide 500 million dollars, according to Bemba.
If implemented, the corridor is expected to give the Port of Lobito a competitive advantage over major regional ports such as Durban (South Africa), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), Beira (Mozambique) and Walvis Bay (Namibia). Transporting freight from Tenke or Kolwezi to Lobito would take between five and eight days, compared with nearly 25 days for Durban. According to the transport minister, this reduction in transit time could lower logistics costs by up to 30 percent. In the first year of operations, authorities expect export volumes of 1 million tons and import volumes of 500,000 tons.
Bemba added that the corridor could lift the DRC’s GDP by 2 to 3 percent through growth in mining, industrial, agricultural and logistics activities along the route. He also said roughly 10,000 direct jobs could be created during rehabilitation and modernization of the Congolese section.
Pierre Mukoko
Asia Minerals Limited’s planned manganese project in Luozi, in Kongo Central province, will require more than 300 MW of power. The energy needs were outlined at the Makutano Forum on Nov. 26 by Fely Samuna, managing director of Kerith Resources, the DRC-based partner of the Japanese multinational.
He said the project’s power demand is split between roughly 120 MW for mining operations and nearly 200 MW for local processing, in line with the government’s push to increase value addition and jobs in the region. Samuna said this demand would come onstream in more than three years, noting that exploration will take three years before mine development begins. He questioned whether the DRC can meet these requirements.
Aime Molendo Sakombi, Minister of Hydraulic Resources and Electricity, said the area has hydropower sites that could supply the project, including the Mpioka site on the Inkisi River. According to Jean-Pierre Mukadi Kalombo, coordinator of the Energy Ministry’s Project Coordination and Management Unit, the Mpioka site has a potential of about 6,000 MW. He said it could also help supply Kinshasa’s grid, including future expansion, and support growing mining demand. Studies of the site will begin next year to give the government the technical data it needs.
Samuna also raised concerns about the DRC’s energy costs. He noted that the Japanese partner already operates the Pertama Ferroalloys smelter in Malaysia, commissioned in 2016, where it relies on a PPA priced at about $0.04 per kWh. He asked whether a lower rate could be considered in the DRC to ensure the competitiveness of local operations and encourage Asia Minerals to process ore domestically.
In response, Bob Mabiala Mvumbi, director general of the Agency for the Development and Promotion of the Grand Inga Project (ADPI), said he was ready to discuss a future PPA. “You will set a price and we will talk,” he said, noting that ADPI is working on defining bankable demand for Inga 3, which is estimated at 3,000-11,000 MW.
The pricing issue remains challenging. The DRC’s state utility SNEL, which says its current average tariff of $0.17 per kWh is below cost, is seeking a price increase. Mini-grid operators charge between $0.25 and $0.70 per kWh.
Timothée Manoke
Citigroup analysts expect copper prices to rise above 13,000 dollars a ton by the second quarter of 2026, a forecast released last week as the metal continues to hit record highs on global markets. Copper reached 11,620 dollars on December 5 on the London Metal Exchange.
The three-month contract has gained about 30 percent since the start of the year, driven by tightening mine supply and expectations surrounding trade policy under the Trump administration. Citigroup says both factors could continue to support prices into 2026.
In anticipation of potential higher U.S. tariffs on refined copper, traders have been building inventories in U.S. warehouses. According to Bloomberg, about 60 percent of copper held in exchange-monitored storage is now located in the United States, largely at Comex facilities. The concentration of inventories could further tighten the market at a time when several major mines are facing significant disruption.
Weak Mine Supply
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ivanhoe Mines and its Chinese partners were forced to revise down production at the Kamoa-Kakula complex after a seismic incident in May 2025. The mine was originally expected to produce at least 500,000 tons in 2025 but now targets a maximum of 420,000 tons, a level also anticipated for 2026. Output is projected to recover to 540,000 tons in 2027.
In Indonesia, a landslide at Grasberg, the world’s second-largest copper mine, led Freeport-McMoRan to suspend part of its operations, prompting a 35 percent cut to its 2026 production outlook. Operational challenges at Chile’s Quebrada Blanca mine have also weighed on output forecasts.
By late November, J.P. Morgan estimated that global supply growth would remain weak this year and reach only about 1.4 percent in 2026, nearly 500,000 tons below its earlier projections.
“All in all, we think these unique dynamics of disjointed inventory and acute supply disruptions tightening the copper market add up to a bullish set up for copper, and are enough to push prices above $12,000/mt in the first half of 2026,” said Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at J.P. Morgan.
Debate Over Shortage Risks
However, new U.S. tariffs are not guaranteed, and any easing of trade tensions could relieve pressure on supply. Analysts at Benchmark Minerals have questioned the likelihood of an actual shortage, suggesting the market may be reacting to speculative signals.
Goldman Sachs does not expect a genuine market deficit before 2029 and forecasts that prices are unlikely to remain above 11,000 dollars a ton for long. BloombergNEF, meanwhile, estimates that the copper market fell into structural deficit as early as 2025, a gap it believes could widen to 19 million tons by 2050.
Emiliano Tossou