MINING (154)
Citigroup analysts expect copper prices to rise above 13,000 dollars a ton by the second quarter of 2026, a forecast released last week as the metal continues to hit record highs on global markets. Copper reached 11,620 dollars on December 5 on the London Metal Exchange.
The three-month contract has gained about 30 percent since the start of the year, driven by tightening mine supply and expectations surrounding trade policy under the Trump administration. Citigroup says both factors could continue to support prices into 2026.
In anticipation of potential higher U.S. tariffs on refined copper, traders have been building inventories in U.S. warehouses. According to Bloomberg, about 60 percent of copper held in exchange-monitored storage is now located in the United States, largely at Comex facilities. The concentration of inventories could further tighten the market at a time when several major mines are facing significant disruption.
Weak Mine Supply
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ivanhoe Mines and its Chinese partners were forced to revise down production at the Kamoa-Kakula complex after a seismic incident in May 2025. The mine was originally expected to produce at least 500,000 tons in 2025 but now targets a maximum of 420,000 tons, a level also anticipated for 2026. Output is projected to recover to 540,000 tons in 2027.
In Indonesia, a landslide at Grasberg, the world’s second-largest copper mine, led Freeport-McMoRan to suspend part of its operations, prompting a 35 percent cut to its 2026 production outlook. Operational challenges at Chile’s Quebrada Blanca mine have also weighed on output forecasts.
By late November, J.P. Morgan estimated that global supply growth would remain weak this year and reach only about 1.4 percent in 2026, nearly 500,000 tons below its earlier projections.
“All in all, we think these unique dynamics of disjointed inventory and acute supply disruptions tightening the copper market add up to a bullish set up for copper, and are enough to push prices above $12,000/mt in the first half of 2026,” said Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at J.P. Morgan.
Debate Over Shortage Risks
However, new U.S. tariffs are not guaranteed, and any easing of trade tensions could relieve pressure on supply. Analysts at Benchmark Minerals have questioned the likelihood of an actual shortage, suggesting the market may be reacting to speculative signals.
Goldman Sachs does not expect a genuine market deficit before 2029 and forecasts that prices are unlikely to remain above 11,000 dollars a ton for long. BloombergNEF, meanwhile, estimates that the copper market fell into structural deficit as early as 2025, a gap it believes could widen to 19 million tons by 2050.
Emiliano Tossou
DR Congo’s state-owned miner Gécamines and Switzerland-based Mercuria Energy Trading announced on Friday the creation of a joint venture to market copper, cobalt and other critical minerals from the Democratic Republic of Congo. According to a joint statement, the new venture is being established with support from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC).
On the same day, the U.S. development finance agency said it is considering taking a direct equity stake in the Gécamines-Mercuria venture. The DFC has issued a letter of intent for an equity investment, with the aim of strengthening U.S. supply chains for strategic minerals.
"As part of the investment contemplated under the DFC’s Letter of Intent, the joint venture will grant U.S. end-users a right of first refusal. This provision ensures that American industries, including those in energy, semiconductors and defense, have secure access to critical minerals essential to economic competitiveness and national security," the statement said.
National Interest
The arrangement follows a strategic agreement signed between Washington and Kinshasa on December 4 in the U.S. capital, under which the United States obtained priority access to Congolese strategic minerals. The agreement specifies that the DRC and its state-owned enterprises will use their marketing rights under participation agreements and contracts to grant offtake access to U.S. and allied buyers. In practice, Gécamines or any other public entity must first offer available volumes to American companies, provided the commercial terms align with international market pricing.
Few operational details have been released about the joint venture. However, sources familiar with the matter say Gécamines is expected to retain control. Some observers already view it as a future specialized trading arm for the company, effectively replacing Sozacom, the former state minerals marketer dissolved in the 1990s.
The creation of such a subsidiary is also seen as a way for Gécamines to counter transfer-pricing practices used by some mining companies in which it holds minority stakes. These practices involve selling output at discounted prices to related entities, reducing dividends owed to Gécamines and lowering state mining revenues.
According to the statement, the joint venture aims to secure competitive prices based on transparent international benchmarks.
"This collaboration marks a pivotal step in Gécamines’ effort to strengthen its role in the global metals market. This venture aims to ensure that Congolese copper and cobalt are traded with transparency, fairness and national benefit at the forefront," said Gécamines chairman Guy Robert Lukama.
Mercuria Strengthens Its Position
Mercuria will contribute its global network and expertise in trading, logistics, financing and operations. It will also train Gécamines staff in risk management, trading practices and operational procedures. In addition, Mercuria will provide financing options, including pre-financing and credit backed by offtake contracts.
For Mercuria, the partnership is strategic, offering priority access to volumes of critical minerals and supporting long-term supply flows. It also reinforces the company’s presence in the Copperbelt and in the broader energy metals value chain. The Geneva-based trader signed a similar agreement on October 30, 2025, with Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) to secure copper supplies from the DRC.
Beyond marketing activities, the collaboration will explore investments in logistics infrastructure in the DRC to facilitate the export of strategic raw materials. These investments are intended to strengthen the country’s position on global markets and provide additional growth opportunities for the joint venture.
Under the strategic agreement signed with the DRC, the United States also pledged support for modernizing the Sakania-Lobito corridor. The DFC said it is prepared to provide up to 1 billion dollars in financing for the rehabilitation and operation of the Dilolo-Sakania railway line. The corridor is expected to become the main export route to the United States. Targets have been set: over the next five years, 50 percent of copper, 30 percent of cobalt and 90 percent of zinc marketed by state enterprises must transit through this route.
Pierre Mukoko & Boaz Kabeya
A tripartite cooperation framework on strategic minerals involving the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the United States and Rwanda was launched in Washington on Dec. 4, 2025.
The Regional Economic Integration Framework (REIF), which serves as the economic pillar of a peace accord, was signed by Kinshasa and Kigali after a preliminary signing on Nov. 7. Alongside the accord, the United States concluded two separate bilateral agreements with the DRC and Rwanda. All documents were signed during a ceremony at the U.S. Institute of Peace attended by Presidents Felix Tshisekedi of the DRC, Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Donald Trump of the United States.
At a press briefing in Washington, Daniel Mukoko Samba, the DRC’s Vice Prime Minister for the National Economy, outlined the purpose of the three-way framework. “As relations between the DRC and Rwanda move toward a more peaceful path centered on shared prosperity, it is also important for the sponsor of this process to secure access to critical metals,” he said. The official added that in today’s geopolitical landscape, access to strategic minerals is essential for any state seeking to become or remain a global power.
Andre Wameso, now Governor of the Central Bank of the Congo and a former economic adviser who took part in negotiations with Rwanda and the United States, said the REIF guarantees that access to strategic resources in eastern DRC will now be negotiated exclusively with national authorities. Wameso argued that the conflict in the country’s east, ongoing for three decades, did not originate from a bilateral dispute between Kinshasa and Kigali but from a Western strategy aimed at bypassing Congolese authorities who opposed the privatization of the mining sector at the time.
A Minerals-for-Security Agreement
The REIF seeks to usher in what Donald Trump described as “a new era of harmony and cooperation” between the DRC and Rwanda by addressing a key driver of the conflict: opaque mineral supply chains. U.S. officials say the framework “unlocks the vast economic potential of the Great Lakes region and creates opportunities for the U.S. private sector.” Commenting on the DRC’s resources, Trump said, “There is tremendous wealth in this land,” adding that U.S. companies would invest in rare earth extraction. “Everybody is going to make a lot of money,” he declared.
A long-discussed “minerals-for-security” pact between Washington and Kinshasa has also been finalized. Congolese officials said two documents were signed: a strategic partnership agreement covering economic and commercial matters, and a memorandum of understanding on security and defense cooperation.
“The relationship between the U.S. and Congolese governments has entered a new phase,” Mukoko Samba said. “Until now, economic ties were governed by an investment protection agreement dating back to 1984. Today, we are strategic partners on economic and trade issues, on defense and security, on science and technology, and on governance.”
Background and Early Moves
Separately, the United States and Rwanda signed the “Shared Economic Prosperity Framework Agreement,” which also addresses strategic minerals, according to press reports. In October 2025, the U.S. received its first shipment of tungsten concentrate from Rwanda, sourced from the Nyakabingo mine and processed in Pennsylvania under a partnership involving Trinity Metals, Global Tungsten & Powders and Traxys.
With Washington and Kinshasa expected to deepen economic ties, several U.S. firms are already active in the DRC, including Kobold Metals in mining and Starlink in satellite internet. The U.S. is also contributing to development of the Lobito Corridor, which links southeastern DRC’s mining regions to the Atlantic coast.
Congolese authorities caution, however, that the triangular cooperation framework can only be fully implemented once peace returns to the country’s east. Despite the signing of the June 27 peace agreement in Washington, violence has recently flared again in South Kivu, leading to new population displacements.
Pierre Mukoko
The U.S. company Minerals Mining Company (Miminco) has had its two operating permits in Kasai province revoked for failing to pay required surface fees. The information appears in a list of forfeiture orders issued by the Ministry and published by the Mining Cadastre (CAMI) on December 2, 2025. Three other companies also lost their mining titles for the same reason. The measure is part of the Congolese government’s effort to strengthen compliance in the mining sector.
Miminco is known for initiating the seizure of a Congo Airways Airbus A320 in Dublin in 2015 as part of a dispute with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The company accused the state of failing to honor a compensation agreement reached after arbitration.
The dispute stemmed from the occupation of Miminco’s diamond concessions in Kasai, first by members of the Presidential Special Division during the Zaire era, and later by the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo (AFDL) under Laurent-Désiré Kabila. After proceedings before the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), the Congolese state agreed in a 2007 settlement to pay the company nearly 13 million dollars. Miminco was founded by Dr. Ilunga Jean Mukend, a Congolese-American physician.
According to CAMI’s register seen by Bankable, the revoked permits were granted on November 21, 2015, after the plane seizure incident. The concessions are located in the Kamonia mining zone in Kasai province. The two cancelled operating permits cover a total of 61 mining blocks.
Under the Mining Code, companies subject to forfeiture orders have 30 days from notification and publication to appeal the decision to the relevant authorities. If no appeal is filed, the forfeiture is entered in the CAMI register and published in the Official Journal, at which point it becomes final.
On September 12, Kasai province signed a memorandum of understanding with CAMI to improve oversight and collection of surface fees on mining concessions and boost provincial revenue. CAMI General Manager Popol Mabolia Yenga said the agreement includes technical and institutional support, data sharing between cadastral systems and training for provincial staff.
Timothée Manoke
The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo is not expected to reach 500,000 tons of annual production until 2027, operator Ivanhoe Mines said on Wednesday, as repair work continues following a seismic event in May.
Since beginning production in 2021, output at Kamoa-Kakula has increased steadily, rising from 333,500 tons in its first full year in 2022 to a record 437,061 tons in 2024.
Ivanhoe had planned to accelerate that growth in 2025 with the launch of a third processing plant, which was expected to boost production to between 520,000 and 580,000 tons.
Those targets were revised downward after the seismic incident, which primarily affected the underground Kakula section of the mine. Production is now forecast to peak at around 420,000 tons in 2025, with a similar ceiling expected in 2026, before increasing to roughly 540,000 tons in 2027.
The outlook assumes a gradual improvement in mining and processing rates as repair work at Kakula progresses. Ivanhoe said a full update to Kamoa-Kakula’s long-term operating plan is under preparation.
Kamoa-Kakula is the DRC’s largest copper mine and one of the biggest in the world. The Congolese state holds a 20 percent stake, while Ivanhoe Mines and Chinese partner Zijin Mining each own 39.6 percent and Crystal River Global Limited holds 0.8%
Aurel Sèdjro Houenou, Ecofin Agency
The electricity demand for the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in Lualaba province, operated by Kamoa Copper SA, is projected to rise significantly in the coming years. According to projections published by its developer Ivanhoe Mines, total demand will reach 347 MW by December 2028, up from 208 MW in December 2025.
The figures come from an internal projection table included in a Nov. 25 statement announcing the commissioning of the rehabilitated turbine No. 5 at the Inga II dam. They differ from the forecasts Ivanhoe Mines presented last April.
The site began receiving an initial 50 MW from the dam, which has an installed capacity of 178 MW, on Nov. 10, the statement said. This power supply will gradually increase to 100 MW in the first quarter of 2026 and to around 150 MW in 2027 as optimizations to the Inga-Kolwezi grid are completed.
A $450 million investment is expected to bring the national utility Snel's contribution to the complex's power supply to 210 MW by the end of 2027. In addition to this capacity, Kamoa Copper SA plans to maintain 100 MW of electricity imports, supplemented by 60 MW from two on-site solar projects under development. The company said this gives it a supply of clean energy that exceeds its needs, cementing its status as a copper producer with one of the lowest greenhouse gas emissions in the industry.
The statement did not explain the projections in detail. But the numbers indicate the site is not expected to reach its high-production scenario before 2028. According to Ivanhoe Mines documentation, that scenario corresponds to an energy demand exceeding 300 MW, involving the simultaneous operation of three concentrators, the full ramp-up of the electric smelter, and the metallurgical optimization of "Project 95." This would yield an annual production of nearly 550,000 to 600,000 tons of copper concentrate.
This implies that the electric smelter, commissioned on Nov. 21 after several delays, will only operate at its rated capacity of 500,000 tons of concentrate per year as 2028 approaches.
Following seismic activity in the Kakula underground mine, production forecasts and the smelter ramp-up schedule have been withdrawn pending a re-evaluation. Kamoa Copper SA has since lowered its 2025 production forecast to between 370,000 and 420,000 tons, down from an initial range of 520,000 to 580,000 tons. Forecasts for future years and a definitive smelter ramp-up schedule are still pending.
The commissioning of the Kamoa-Kakula smelter, described as the largest and most modern in Africa, is a strategic milestone for the Congolese economy. It allows the country to transition from exporting concentrate to exporting copper metal, increasing the value captured locally, fiscal revenues, industrial development, and the DRC's influence in the global copper supply chain.
Pierre Mukoko
The Democratic Republic of Congo's mines minister announced the creation of 64 artisanal mining zones on Monday, Nov. 17.
The announcement was made during a crisis meeting in Kolwezi, held two days after a November 15 accident at the Kalando mine that killed around 40 artisanal miners.
"I can officially tell you today that at least 64 artisanal mining zones have been cleared for you," Mines Minister Louis Watum Kabamba said.
Identifying these zones was the first part of a plan presented by President Felix Tshisekedi during a June 13 council of ministers meeting to curb "the perverse effects denounced in artisanal mining" in Lualaba province, as soon as possible."
Among the problems identified by the head of state was the invasion of industrial mining concessions by artisanal miners, generating cohabitation tensions. The Kalando site is one example. Located 42 kilometers southeast of Kolwezi, it sits on a permit (PE 2116) belonging to Chemical of Africa (Chemaf), which said it ceded the permit to Pajeclem Congo Consulting Sarl on July 21. Artisanal miners access it only on weekends under a "social" authorization, a situation conducive to tension.
President Tshisekedi had requested that the identified zones be "likely to meet the expectations of the sector." The ministry said the 64 zones were determined following joint work with specialized services and validated after several technical field missions.
Minister Watum Kabamba said the decrees establishing these zones have already been signed. It is not yet known when the sites will be made available or when work can begin.
State cobalt monopoly central to formalization plan
Mining in the zones is expected to be conducted in collaboration with the state-owned Entreprise Générale du Cobalt (EGC), a subsidiary of Gécamines, which holds a monopoly on trading artisanal production of strategic minerals like cobalt.
EGC said it has implemented a model to align the artisanal sector with international standards to facilitate the commercialization of its production. The model relies on deploying "controlled mining areas, equipped with weighing devices, direct payment mechanisms and digital tracking systems, guaranteeing that each ton is traceable from the artisanal site to the processing plant."
To allow EGC to exercise its monopoly fully, President Tshisekedi has demanded the strict application of all rules, including sanctions, against processing plants and entities that illegally purchase artisanal cobalt, bypassing EGC's legal monopoly. He also called on Gécamines and its subsidiary to strengthen their financial collaboration. EGC needs funding to offer artisanal miners competitive prices and cash payments to capture a significant share of production.
In a bid to attract investors, EGC presented its first production of 1,000 tons of what it called "structured, ethical and traceable" artisanal cobalt in Kolwezi. Despite the recent accident, artisanal activity continues at Kalando "to maintain social stability.”
Pierre Mokoko & Ronsard Luabeya
On November 19, Rome Resources announced its plan to raise £1.9 million ($2.4 million) through a share placement. The funds, still subject to regulatory conditions, will be used to finance a new drilling program at the Bisie North tin project the British company is exploring in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Rome Resources says the campaign aims to test priority targets on the site, especially the deeper zones of the Kalayi and Mont Agoma deposits. The company estimates that the work has a discovery potential of between 53,000 and 144,000 tons of mineral resources. This target could increase the 10,600 tons of inferred resources declared last month at Bisie North.
“The board is highly encouraged by the technical foundations laid by the recent maiden mineral resource estimate, which clearly highlights the high-grade potential at both Kalayi and Mont Agoma. We are now looking forward immensely to testing the high grade tin potential of Kalayi deep, a key upside indicated by the recent maiden mineral resource estimate,” said Paul Barrett, CEO of Rome Resources.
Pending the financing, the company expects to start drilling in “approximately two weeks.” The work should continue for 3 to 4 months. Meeting these goals could further position Bisie North as a potential contributor to Congolese tin output, which was 99 % supported in 2024 by Alphamin Resources’ Bisie mine.
Aurel Sèdjro Houenou, Ecofin Agency
Entreprise Générale du Cobalt (EGC), a subsidiary of state-owned Gécamines, presented 1,000 tons of artisanally mined cobalt on November 13, 2025, describing the material as “structured, ethical and traceable.”
The event, titled “1,000 Tons of Future,” aimed to demonstrate to markets and investors that artisanal cobalt can meet international expectations on transparency, profitability, and ESG compliance.
EGC General Director Eric Kalala said the company hopes to attract investment that will help build a competitive, nationally controlled artisanal mining industry.
An Informal Sector with Heavy Reliance
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) holds about 72 percent of global cobalt reserves and supplies more than 74 percent of world production. EGC estimates that a significant share of this output comes from artisanal mining, a sector that employs between 1.5 million and 2 million people and supports more than 10 million others.
Despite its economic importance, the sector operates largely outside formal structures. It is marked by non-transparent buying practices, low prices, unsafe working conditions and the dominance of unregulated intermediaries. These problems prompted the U.S. Labor Department to add Congolese cobalt to its 2024 list of goods suspected of being produced with child labor.
Created in 2019, EGC is mandated to organize, purchase and market artisanal cobalt while improving traceability, compliance and fair pay. The company also aims to increase local value addition through small-scale processing, strengthen cooperatives and offer miners more predictable incomes.
Push for Transparency
To carry out its mission and secure financing, EGC says it has developed a model designed to bring the artisanal segment up to international standards.
“The company is deploying controlled mining zones with weighing stations, direct-payment systems and digital tracking tools to ensure every ton is traceable from the mining site to processing,” EGC said.
However, EGC did not disclose where the 1,000 tons presented in Kolwezi were mined. The lack of clarity is significant for industrial buyers, who frequently accuse artisanal miners of entering their concessions illegally. Such incursions regularly spark disputes and, according to the Federation of Congolese Enterprises, have caused nearly 3 billion dollars in losses for one mining company.
Government Response
In response, President Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi announced several measures during the 47th Council of Ministers in Kolwezi on June 13, 2025. These include quickly designating legal artisanal mining zones and opening discussions with mining companies, including Gécamines, to release specific land parcels.
Gécamines had already made five pilot sites available to EGC around Kolwezi in February 2024. The sites were intended to support a roadmap to gradually formalize the artisanal cobalt sector. An exploration program began soon after, and EGC announced in September 2024 that targeted drilling would start on one of the locations. Results have not yet been published.
Pierre Mukoko & Ronsard Luabeya
Security officers at Bipemba Airport in Mbujimayi, Democratic Republic of Congo, seized 13 kilograms of diamonds on November 11, 2025, after discovering the cargo had not been declared for transport to Kinshasa.
Provincial anti-fraud services and the Provincial Mining Division said the stones were not listed on any official paperwork and had not been reported to the authorities, in breach of national traceability rules.
The diamonds were brought to interim provincial governor Daniel Kazadi Cilumbayi, who called a security meeting with all agencies active at the airport, including the police, the National Intelligence Agency, the Mining Division, and anti-fraud units. The meeting focused on determining how the attempted smuggling occurred and improving coordination among security services.
Kazadi praised the officers involved and said the provincial government remained committed to tackling mineral trafficking. “There will be no tolerance for such practices. The law must be strictly applied,” he said, adding that smuggling undermines supply-chain transparency and deprives the province of revenue.
The governor instructed security and mining authorities to strengthen checks at all exit points in the province and urged closer cooperation among the institutions responsible for anti-fraud work.
The seized diamonds were transferred to the Centre for Expertise, Evaluation and Certification (CEEC) and the Provincial Mining Division for technical analysis and valuation, the governor’s office said. With no claimant for the cargo, an investigation has been opened to identify those responsible.
Ronsard Luabeya
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The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) said on Tuesday, Nov. 11, that it had initiated Federal Court proceedings against AVZ Minerals, the mining company that claimed mining rights over the Manono lithium deposit in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
The regulator alleges that the company and two of its directors failed to meet their disclosure obligations to investors concerning the legal dispute surrounding the project. AVZ was listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) until trading was suspended in May 2022. It was delisted in May 2024.
Through its subsidiary Dathcom Mining, AVZ held a 75 percent stake in a licence covering part of the Manono site, which is widely regarded as the DRC’s largest lithium deposit, but it never secured the mining rights. In October 2023, joint-venture partner Cominière, a state-owned company, announced that it had signed an agreement to operate part of the deposit with China’s Zijin Mining Group. AVZ is contesting these developments and has launched several international legal proceedings to defend its claims.
ASIC alleges that the company failed to disclose information about the dispute for nearly a year. Managing Director Nigel Ferguson and Technical Director Graeme Johnston are also accused of breaching their duties as directors by allowing the publication of “false or misleading” announcements to the ASX.
“It was all but impossible for retail investors to travel to an overseas location in central Africa where the company’s operations were being conducted. In those circumstances, investors rely on the company to provide accurate and timely information. We allege Mr Ferguson and Mr Johnston failed to inform investors of the ongoing issues in this case for nearly 12 months,” ASIC Deputy Chair Sarah Court said.
AVZ and its directors “strongly denied all allegations of wrongdoing” in a statement issued shortly afterward, saying they will vigorously defend themselves in court.
Emiliano Tossou
Kibali, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s largest gold mine, produced 191,000 ounces of gold in the third quarter of 2025, Barrick Mining said in its financial report released on November 10. That’s a 21% increase from the 159,000 ounces recorded in the same period of 2024.
Barrick attributed the improvement to the ramp-up of open-pit operations at the Kibali mining complex, where extracted ore volumes rose by 133% during the quarter. The increase offset a decline in underground mine output.
From January to September 2025, total production reached 498,000 ounces, slightly below the 509,000 ounces recorded over the same period last year. To meet its annual target of between 688,000 and 755,000 ounces, Kibali will need to produce between 190,000 and 257,000 ounces in the fourth quarter. That would require an additional rise of at least 19.5%, following the 21% increase already achieved in the third quarter.
Such performance would benefit the Congolese state, which owns 10% of the mine through the state company SOKIMO and collects various taxes and other statutory fees in addition to dividends. These include a 30% corporate profit tax, a 3.5% mining royalty on gross sales, and a 0.3% local development contribution based on turnover.
A persistent challenge, however, is improving the valuation of the gold sold. Official data show that in 2024, artisanal cooperatives exported their gold at an average price of $72,873.9 per ton, compared with $53,542.4 per ton for Kibali, a difference of $19,331 per ton. This discrepancy is hard to explain, given that Kibali uses advanced technology and expertise that should, in principle, secure higher international market prices.
Pierre Mukoko
M23 rebels are trying to restart gold mining operations at the Twangiza gold site, operated by China’s Twangiza Mining in South Kivu province. The move follows a series of airstrikes by the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) targeting the mine’s power facilities to disrupt the rebels’ illegal gold operations.
According to local outlet Tazama RDC, the Rwanda-backed rebels have been working since last week to resume gold extraction at the site, which they have controlled since May 2025. Several local sources say a new fuel storage tank has been delivered to replace one destroyed in the FARDC strikes. A backup generator that survived the October bombings is also being reactivated to restore power and allow for a partial restart of production.
Internal sources at Twangiza Mining estimate total losses since the occupation at nearly $75 million, including more than 500 kilograms of looted gold and extensive damage to or theft of equipment. The site’s profitability makes Twangiza one of M23’s key revenue sources, underscoring the group’s push to resume mining despite repeated army attacks.
In October, Reuters reported that the rebels were receiving assistance from Rwandan technicians to operate the mine and expand the extraction zone. That expansion reportedly involved forcing residents from their homes and destroying several nearby churches. The situation reflects M23’s strategy to build an economic base in areas under its control, even as military and diplomatic efforts continue to end the conflict.
Timothée Manoke
The World Bank expects tin prices to rise by around 10% in 2025, followed by further gains of 3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.
In its October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, the institution forecasts that prices will climb from $30,066 per ton in 2024 to $33,000 in 2025, $34,000 in 2026, and $34,500 in 2027. The outlook for the first two years was revised upward by $2,000 and $2,500, respectively, from the April 2025 projections.
The Bank attributes the rise to persistent tightness in global supply. “The global tin market is likely to remain tight, given the limited pipeline of new projects and continued vulnerability to geopolitical and operational disruptions,” the World Bank said.
Prices are expected to keep increasing despite a partial recovery in supply, particularly in Indonesia, where export license delays have been resolved, and in Myanmar, where several mines idled since 2023 have resumed production. Global demand is set to stay strong, supported by rising output of semiconductors, solar panels, and other energy-transition technologies.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), one of Africa’s leading tin producers, is closely watching these developments. In 2024, the country exported 42,953 tons of tin concentrate, according to official data. Most exports came from Alphamin, operator of the Bisie mine (26,932 tons), with the rest (15,853 tons) from artisanal miners.
Price Gap Limits DRC Revenue
The DRC is benefiting little from the price rally due to the lack of local refining capacity. The World Bank’s benchmark prices refer to refined tin, while the DRC exports only concentrate. This gap limits value addition, reduces earnings for artisanal miners, and cuts tax revenue for both central and provincial governments.
In 2024, Alphamin’s 26,932 tons of concentrate exports were valued at $348.6 million, or roughly $12,946 per ton. By comparison, the 17,865 tons of refined metal derived from that output were sold for $542 million, averaging more than $30,300 per ton, according to company data. The difference highlights the significant fiscal losses faced by the state, which collects royalties on concentrate rather than on refined metal.
Congolese tin exports could decline in 2025 amid a worsening security situation in the east of the country, the main production area. Facing the advance of AFC/M23 rebels, Alphamin suspended operations in March before resuming mid-April but later revised its annual forecast downward. The company now expects to produce 18,500 tons in 2025, compared with an initial target of 20,000 tons.
The ongoing conflict is also likely to cut into artisanal exports through formal channels. A 2022 Global Witness report estimated that about 90% of 3T minerals (tantalum, tin, and tungsten) exported by Rwanda were already being sourced illegally from the DRC.
Pierre Mukoko