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Ivanhoe Mines produced  437,061 tonnes of copper concentrate at its Kamoa-Kakula project in 2024, up 12% year-on-year. The Canadian firm disclosed the figure on January 8, 2025, saying it aligns with its revised forecast range of 425,000-450,000 tonnes. This year, Ivanhoe Mines aims to produce 520,000 to 580,000 tonnes of copper concentrate. 

Last June, it commissioned a third concentrator at Kamoa-Kakula, boosting the project’s installed capacity to 600,000 tonnes per year. This new concentrator should support Ivanhoe Mines’ ambitions. It expects to surpass 600,000 tonnes of copper concentrate production by 2026.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) became the world’s second-largest copper producer in 2023, surpassing Peru. While Kamoa-Kakula played a major role in this shift, the Congolese government is concerned about the sales process for copper produced at the complex. The authorities recently argued that the negotiated prices do not reflect “competitive market rates”. During a council of ministers held last October, the government suggested state involvement in selecting buyers for Kamoa's production.

Kamoa-Kakula is a joint venture between Ivanhoe Mines (39.6%), Zijin Mining Group (39.6%), Crystal River (0.8%), and the Congolese state (20%).

This article was initially published in French by Emiliano Tossou

Edited in English by Ola Schad Akinocho

Posted On jeudi, 09 janvier 2025 16:22 Written by

The global demand for batteries stood at 850 GWh in 2023, up more than 40% year-on-year. The surge was mainly driven by electric vehicle (EV) sales, which account for nearly 90% of total demand. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) EV Battery Supply Chain Sustainability report, demand should keep growing, quadrupling by 2030, and sevenfold by 2035 under a business-as-usual scenario.

However, global battery demand could rise ninefold if countries fulfill their climate commitments by 2035. This demand could increase twelvefold if the energy sector achieves carbon neutrality by 2050, as outlined in the IEA's Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario.

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These optimistic forecasts for the battery market bode well for critical raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, and graphite minerals essential for battery production that are abundantly found on the African continent. However, these markets are currently experiencing significant turbulence, marked by a sharp decline in prices.

For instance, cobalt prices have halved over the past two years due to oversupply. The Cobalt Institute anticipates a market surplus in 2025, which may keep prices at current levels. As of January 3, 2025, cobalt traded at $24,300 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange.

The lithium market is also facing challenges; lithium hydroxide prices have plummeted nearly 90% since late 2022. Fastmarkets reports that lithium spodumene prices fell over 84% between March 2023 and March 2024. Kent Masters, CEO of Albemarle the world's leading lithium producer predicts that "prices will stay low for longer."

The graphite market recorded the same trend, with Fastmarkets indicating a 33.43% drop in prices in 2023, from $530-$575 per tonne in December that year to $450 per tonne in October 2024 close to the all-time low of $430 per tonne set in 2020.

The current decline in critical mineral prices poses significant challenges for African economies. Countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which produces 70% of the world's cobalt; Zimbabwe and Mali, key players in lithium; and Mozambique and Madagascar, important sources of graphite, are relying on these resources to drive economic growth. However, there are rising concerns about the viability of these countries’s strategies and potential delays in developing new production sites.

Challenges

During the previous electric vehicle boom that led to soaring prices for critical metals, many African nations were outpaced by competitors particularly Chinese firms that flooded markets with their production. To capitalize on the anticipated global energy transition by 2030 or 2035, these countries must adopt a different approach by addressing several key challenges: improving regulatory frameworks, strengthening infrastructure, optimizing business climates, and developing skills within the workforce.

According to a report from the Future Minerals Forum, a $5.4 trillion investment will be needed by 2035 to support the global energy transition in the critical minerals sector. Africa is strategically positioned to play a vital role here. The report describes the continent as a "credible alternative to China's dominance in refining and processing critical minerals," thanks to its abundant resources and proximity to European and Asian markets.

Louis-Nino Kansoun, Ecofin Agency

Posted On jeudi, 09 janvier 2025 15:34 Written by

Between January and September 2024, Kibali Gold exported 19.55 t of gold from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This output was valued at $1.02 billion, according to the DRC’s Technical Cell for Mining Coordination and Planning (CTCPM). Bankable found that such a record hadn’t been achieved since 2020, value-wise. Volume-wise, the company exported less gold in 2024, compared to 2023, over the period reviewed. Meanwhile, the Kibali mine produced 4.91 t of gold.

In the first nine months of 2024, gold sold for $1,630.65 per ounce on average, against $1,315.31 in 2023, over the same period, thus 24% up year-on-year. Kibali Gold’s top stakeholders–Barrick Gold and AngloGold Ashanti–tried to take advantage of the surge in gold prices.

While Kibali Gold's performance is commendable, it highlights a persistent imbalance in gold exports from the DRC. A comparison between the price per ounce exported by Kibali and the average annual price set by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reveals a systematic discrepancy, with this gap reaching its highest level since 2021 in the first nine months of 2024. Additionally, artisanally produced gold, now centralized and marketed by DRC Gold Trading (formerly Primera Gold), is estimated at $2,100 per ounce.

Écart entre les prix de Kibali Gold et ceux du marché 

Due to the lack of transparency surrounding Kibali's gold marketing processes, it is difficult to determine the reasons behind these price discrepancies. Financial reports often lack detailed information that would help clarify these differences. However, several hypotheses can be considered.

One possibility relates to sales methods. Unlike other players who sell raw gold directly to buyers, Kibali Gold may utilize forward sales agreements or specific marketing structures that could affect the final price. 

Another possibility relates to costs associated with transporting gold to international markets. The Kibali mine is located approximately 220 kilometers east of Isiro, Haut-Uele's provincial capital, which lacks a modern airport and reliable road infrastructure. Transportation options are limited to the Ugandan border town of Arua, about 150 kilometers to the west, or the Kenyan port of Mombasa, which is 1,800 kilometers away.

These logistical challenges likely incur additional costs for transporting and securing gold, ultimately reducing net selling prices. According to Kibali executives, marketing costs for 2024 are anticipated to range between $740 and $820 per ounce an expense that could partially explain this year's observed price variance.

In a press release issued in November 2024, Kibali Gold executives emphasized their company's economic contributions to the DRC. They reported generating $5.4 billion since operations began, including $1.66 billion in taxes and royalties and $2.87 billion in contractual services. Kibali Gold is the DRC’s largest industrial gold producer.

Assuming an average lifespan of 11 years for the firm’s 10 permits listed in the Mining Cadastre database, Kibali Gold’s contribution stands at an estimated value of $509 million per year compared to an average annual export value of $911.18 million, with 90% benefiting major shareholders Barrick Gold and AngloGold Ashanti.

Georges Auréole Bamba

Posted On mardi, 07 janvier 2025 16:03 Written by

The electricity regulator (ARE) has granted Compagnie Minière Luisha (COMILU) eligible customer status. This allows the firm to have other power suppliers, besides the country’s power utility, the SNEL, for three years. The visa was officially granted on December 23, 2024, by Sandrine Mubenga Ngalula, General Manager of ARE. COMILU is 78% owned by China Railways Group Limited.

The eligible customer status is governed by the Electricity Act and a ministerial order issued by the Minister of Water and Electricity. It can be granted to any consumer that meets one of two criteria: having an installed capacity of over one megawatt or an annual consumption exceeding 5 gigawatt-hours for non-residential electricity use.

For now, it is unknown if COMILU will leverage its new status to import electricity or buy power from China Railway’s subsidiaries.

China Railway Group has been operating in the DRC since 2008 and is also involved in the Sicomines joint venture, a strategic partnership with the DRC. The company's subsidiaries, particularly COMILU, focus on producing copper cathodes; this requires substantial and consistent energy. However, the SNEL often struggles to meet these energy demands. As a result, mining operators often have to produce or import the needed input.

At a recent Makutano business forum that gathered experts from the DRC and beyond, the SNEL's director noted that mining companies spend nearly a billion dollars annually to compensate for the State’s energy deficits.

The sum represents a significant loss of opportunity for local electricity production in the DRC and is expected to continue rising. In 2024, 11 other companies, including major players such as Kamoa Copper (operated by Ivanhoe Mines), also received eligible customer status. This development allows these companies to diversify their electricity suppliers further, potentially reducing demand for locally generated electricity.

Georges Auréole Bamba

Posted On lundi, 06 janvier 2025 17:58 Written by

At the current rate of emissions reduction, mining companies risk falling 40% short of the target needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2030, as outlined in the Paris Agreement. This alarming prediction comes from a new report published by dss+, following a survey of 52 mining companies that highlights a significant gap between their stated ambitions and actual progress.

The report, titled "Decarbonising Mining in an Era of Growing Demand for Critical Metals and Minerals," reveals that mining companies reduced their emissions at an average annual rate of just 2% between 2018 and 2021. This rate, while still relevant, is far below the 4.5% reduction required to meet the sector's climate targets (see chart below).

The report attributes the gap to several structural factors, including declining ore quality, which forces operators to intensify extraction efforts and increases energy demands for ventilation and cooling in deep mines. Additionally, monitoring emissions particularly Scope 3 emissions generated downstream from transportation or processing remains a challenge. These emissions can account for up to 60% of the sector's total greenhouse gas output but are often overlooked in companies' decarbonization strategies. Executives interviewed by dss+ also cited fragmented decision-making across sites and insufficient emissions monitoring as obstacles to effective decarbonization, alongside policies that lack incentives for investment in clean technologies.

The dss+ report is not the first to raise concerns about the mining sector's slow progress in decarbonization. Data from some companies indicate stagnant results in emissions reduction. For instance, Rio Tinto reported Scope 1 and 2 emissions of 32.6 megatonnes in 2023, slightly down from 32.7 megatonnes in 2022 (adjusted for acquisitions). BHP also noted a slight increase in emissions, rising from 9.1 megatonnes in 2023 to 9.2 megatonnes in fiscal 2024.

Other organizations have highlighted the paradox facing the industry: it must meet the rising demand for critical metals necessary for the energy transition while simultaneously reducing its emissions. In a report titled "The Net Zero Roadmap to 2050," the International Finance Corporation (IFC) projected that copper and nickel production would need to increase by 200-300% by 2050 to meet climate targets, yet CO₂ emissions from their value chains could double.

In response to these challenges, solutions are emerging to accelerate decarbonization efforts and meet climate expectations. dss+ advocates for greater transparency in annual emissions reporting, emphasizing the need to account for Scope 3 emissions more effectively. Additionally, they recommend developing structured decarbonization plans and improving energy supply. The firm suggests adopting internal carbon pricing a concept where companies assign a virtual cost to CO₂ emissions, motivating them to reduce this cost through optimized financial decisions.

These proposals align with those suggested by the IFC, which aims to reduce emissions from the copper and nickel sectors by 90% by 2050 through transformative changes in their value chains. The IFC recommends adopting renewable energy sources, electrifying equipment, optimizing processes for energy efficiency, and leveraging automation and digitization to minimize inefficiencies. Proactive management of residual emissions through carbon offsets and CO₂ capture technologies is also crucial, along with fostering collaboration among companies, governments, and investors.

There is currently little evidence suggesting that these proposals are practically feasible or enough to transform an industry that is vital for the global energy transition but continues to emit excessive greenhouse gases. According to multiple sources, including Globaldata and McKinsey, the mining sector is one of the highest-emitting industries globally, accounting for between 4% and 7% of direct greenhouse gas emissions. When including downstream Scope 3 emissions, this figure rises significantly—up to 28% or approximately 19,440 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Successfully decarbonizing the mining sector will ultimately depend on the commitment of industry players and political leaders to overcome existing structural and financial barriers.

Louis-Nino Kansoun, Ecofin Agency

Posted On vendredi, 27 décembre 2024 16:44 Written by

Jean-Lucien Bussa, Portfolio Minister of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accused Kamoa Copper of selling its copper concentrate output below market prices. Kamoa Copper operates the country’s largest copper mine, Kamoa-Kakula. The official stated this in Kinshasa, during the General Assembly of State Companies, held from December 9 to 14.

According to Agence Congolaise de Presse, which reported Minister Bussa’s claims, Kamoa Copper sells below market prices due to the dominant position of one of the buyers, Zijin Mining Group. Indeed, Zijin Mining Group owns 39.6% of Kamoa Copper, alongside Ivanhoe Mines (39.6%), Crystal River (0.8%), and the Congolese State (20%). Zijin is also one of Ivanhoe’s top shareholders. 

Zijin Mining buys the Kamoa-Kakula copper through a subsidiary, Gold Mountains (H.K.) International Mining Company Limited. The other firm buying copper concentrate from this project is CITIC Metal (HK). This was known via a communiqué issued in June 2021. According to this source, the two Hong Kong-based companies buy the production of the first concentrator set up at Kamoa-Kakula. Since June 21, no details filtered regarding new buyers. Meanwhile, two more concentrators have been commissioned over the period.

Although the price of copper concentrate cannot be directly compared to pure copper prices on the global market, the year-on-year percentage increase raises concerns, particularly given that copper prices have surged more significantly this year. After remaining below $9,000 per tonne throughout 2023 and the first two months of 2024, copper prices soared to a record high of over $11,000 in May. Despite some corrections and fluctuations since then, copper continues to trade above the $9,000 mark.

The discrepancy between Kamoa Copper's concentrate pricing and market trends prompts scrutiny. While Ivanhoe Mines reported that Kamoa-Kakula generated $2.263 billion in revenue from 303,328 tonnes of copper concentrate at an average realized price of approximately $7,461 per tonne for the first nine months of 2024—up 7.8% from the previous year—this figure does not reflect the broader market dynamics.

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Regarding Minister Bussa’s assertion about Kamoa selling below market prices, the official said the State would now get involved in the sales process: "From now on, the buyer selection process will be carried out with the involvement of the State shareholder. This will enable us to sell at the market price and optimize sales,” he declared. 

The goal is to maximize the DRC's mining revenues and profits. However, Bussa did not specify what the State’s involvement would encompass and how they would proceed. For now, Kamoa Copper has not commented on the government’s accusations or its decision to get involved in sales operations.

This article was initially published in French by Louis-Nino Kansoun

Edited in English by Ola S. Akinocho

Posted On mardi, 17 décembre 2024 09:11 Written by

US-based Namib Minerals should soon complete its listing on the Nasdaq stock market, according to statement dated December 9, 2024. The listing is expected to grant the mining company full ownership of the mining and exploration assets of Greenstone, a private equity fund specializing in the mining sector.

The exploration assets include 13 licenses in the Haut-Katanga and Lualaba provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where six initial drill holes have already been completed, indicating significant copper and cobalt potential. Namib Minerals aims to leverage its upcoming IPO to secure additional funding for exploration works.

The company's interest in the DRC emerges amidst a rising long-term demand for copper, driven by the energy transition. According to BHP, this transition should push up demand for copper by one million tonnes annually until 2035. 

The DRC, the world's second-largest copper producer, holds substantial potential for new discoveries; by 2023, it accounted for 65% of the world's newly identified copper reserves.

Currently, Namib Minerals has not disclosed specific details about its exploration programs in the DRC. For now, the firm focuses on finalizing its merger with SPAC Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI. Under the deal these two firms sealed in June 2024, Namib will sell 30 million of its shares for $500 million. This transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2025, pending necessary approvals.

Namib Minerals' flagship assets include three gold mines in Zimbabwe. One of them has produced 1.8 million ounces from 1941 to 2023.

PM with Ecofin Agency

Posted On vendredi, 13 décembre 2024 17:35 Written by

On December 10, 2024, Gary Nagle, Glencore CEO,  met with Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi, President of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).  The two men discussed Glencore's contributions to the Congolese economy. "We employ more than 17,000 people in the DRC and we have a community project worth more than US$100 million," Nagle said, as reported by the DRC presidency's communication services. He added that President Tshisekedi supported Glencore's initiatives and agreed on the importance of collaborating to improve the situation in the DRC while defending their respective interests.

While these are the only details disclosed from the meeting, the mention of mutual interest comes at a time when Kamoto Copper Company (KCC), a subsidiary of Glencore that is 75% owned by the group and 25% by Gécamines (the state-owned mining company), is facing a tax adjustment of approximately $895 million by the Tax Authority, the DGRAD. Earlier communications from Glencore indicated that DRC tax authorities contested KCC's declared sales and expenses, leading to customs claims for non-compliance. The Swiss company had noted ongoing discussions with tax authorities to defend its position, but no updates have been provided.

For Glencore, resolving this tax dispute is critical. Management has indicated that prolonged uncertainty or an unfavorable ruling could significantly impact the group's financial results for the current year. This situation is exacerbated by a reported decline in production levels at KCC's various sites, with copper production down by 18% and cobalt production down by 21% at the end of the third quarter of 2024.

The outcome of these discussions between Glencore and the DRC government may play a crucial role in addressing both the company's operational challenges and its ongoing commitments to local economic development.

This article was initially published in French, by Georges Auréole Bamba.

Edited in English by Ola Schad Akinocho

Posted On mercredi, 11 décembre 2024 15:47 Written by

China has banned the export of several critical minerals to the US. Announced and implemented on December 3, the move covers minerals like gallium and germanium. It is a response to U.S. restrictions on technology sales to China. This is good news for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which could position itself as a rival of China as a germanium supplier.

The DRC aims to supply 30% of the global germanium demand, according to Gécamines, the State-owned mining company leading this effort. In a July 2023 interview with Reuters, Gécamines President Guy Robert Lukama said Chinese restrictions present opportunities for the DRC. China's earlier measures had already disrupted supplies of critical minerals such as germanium. 

“The move by China will create some scarcity in the market, which means that our germanium which is not yet committed could have more value [...]There are no customers yet, but there is interest, it's been there since we started the project and we are quite sure that we will get more interest on our germanium shortly.”

In May 2024, Gécamines announced a partnership with Belgium's Umicore to process germanium from the "Big Hill" tailings site in Lubumbashi. The first germanium concentrate exports to Belgium started in October 2024. Increased disruptions from Beijing's recent measures may help Gécamines attract more customers and encourage investment in other Congolese tailings sites. 

The Lubumbashi hydrometallurgical plant, which has an annual production capacity of 30 tonnes of germanium, was built with a $75 million investment and is expected to be completed in 2023. In addition to germanium, the plant will produce zinc oxide, copper, and cobalt.

Emiliano Tossou

Posted On jeudi, 05 décembre 2024 11:38 Written by

The Kamoa-Kakula complex produced 45,019 tonnes of copper concentrate in November 2024. Ivanhoe Mines, the facility’s owner, disclosed the output on December 3; it is the highest monthly volume produced this year. From January to November 2024, the Congolese complex delivered 390,061 tonnes of copper concentrate.

Since the commissioning of a third concentrator at the site last June, Kamoa-Kakula has consistently broken its monthly production records. The mine is expected to deliver between 425,000 and 450,000 tonnes in 2024, compared to 393,551 tonnes in 2023. The complex is set to produce even more next year than this year. Kamoa-Kakula has recently achieved an annual production capacity of 600,000 tonnes.

Kamoa-Kakula is a joint venture with Zijin Mining (39.6% stake), China CITIC Bank, and Ivanhoe Mines as its major investors; Ivanhoe is the largest shareholder (39.6% stake). While the mine's production is subject to sales agreements with Chinese companies, the Congolese government has recently expressed its intention to participate in the buyer selection process. 

"The State must get involved so that it can guarantee the credibility of the organized bidding process and be confident that any future buyer selection process will enable Kamoa Copper SA to receive competitive bids and obtain the best possible terms for the sale of its products," states the minutes from the Council of Ministers meeting held on October 4.

The increase in copper production at Kamoa-Kakula is part of a broader upward trend in Congolese copper output. Following a 13.5% increase in 2023, BMI forecasts that DRC copper production will grow by a more modest 4.5% in 2024, bringing total output closer to 3 million tonnes. With Peru targeting 2.8 million tonnes this year, the DRC is set to maintain its symbolic status as the world's second-largest copper producer.

Emiliano Tossou

Posted On mardi, 03 décembre 2024 16:57 Written by
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