Gold prices could soar past $4,000 per ounce in 2026, according to a JP Morgan note published April 22, 2025. The American bank attributes its bullish forecast to rising recession risks in the US and ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
JP Morgan expects gold to average $3,675/oz by Q4 2025, climbing above $4,000 in the second quarter of 2026. The bank warns prices could break these thresholds even sooner if demand outpaces expectations.
While global prices are set to surge, gold production in the DRC is heading the other way. In 2024, the Kibali mine—DRC’s main industrial gold site—produced 686,000 ounces, down 10% from 763,000 ounces in 2023, marking its lowest output since 2019, when production hit 813,000 ounces.
The artisanal sector is faring even worse: official gold exports plunged 66% in 2024, from 5.18 tonnes to just 1.75 tonnes. The outlook for 2025 remains bleak, with state-owned DRC Gold Trading SA struggling to operate amid persistent security tensions in the east, fueling smuggling and choking off legal exports.
Demand Up
If gold production in the DRC keeps falling, the country could miss out on the price surge. Being one of the world’s major producers, if its output keeps lowering, prices could remain high.
JP Morgan highlights strong demand from investors and central banks, expected to average 710 tonnes per quarter this year..
On April 22, 2025, gold’s spot price broke $3,500 per ounce for the first time, driven by US-China trade tensions and friction between President Trump and the Federal Reserve. Trump’s pressure to cut interest rates is fueling gold’s rise.
Historically, gold prices move in the opposite direction to interest rates. When rates fall, bonds lose appeal and gold’s safe-haven status strengthens, especially amid geopolitical uncertainty.
The dollar’s fall against the euro, hitting a three-year low, further boosts gold’s appeal as a protective asset.
In early April, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast to $3,700 per ounce by end-2025, up from $3,300, and even suggested gold could reach $4,500 in extreme cases.
This article was initially published in French by Pierre Mukoko (Ecofin Agency)
Edited in English by Ola Schad Akinocho
