U.S. President Donald Trump announced on July 8 a 50% tariff on all copper imports, a move intended to repatriate copper production and reduce foreign dependence, which he described as a national security risk.
The United States ranks as the world’s second-largest copper importer after China. It mainly imports refined copper. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, copper imports hit $17 billion in 2024, with $6 billion coming from Chile alone.
The administration has not confirmed an official start date for the tariff but hinted it could take effect as early as August. The announcement immediately sent copper prices soaring on the U.S. market. On the Commodity Exchange (COMEX), futures contracts jumped 13%, marking the largest single-day gain since 1968. Prices then settled just below $5.60 per pound the next day.
Traders reacted to the prospect of costlier copper imports by anticipating shortages. Some signs point to speculative buying, as investors seek to profit from expected price hikes once the tariffs kick in.
Ripple Effects on the DRC
This price surge comes amid strong global demand for copper, a metal essential for electric vehicles (about 80 kg per car), renewable energy, and infrastructure projects. Analysts project a global supply shortfall of 4.5 million tonnes by 2030. This deficit supports prices on international markets, including the London Metal Exchange (LME). Meanwhile, Trump’s push to curb Chinese influence in supply chains adds to trade tensions.
The Democratic Republic of Congo produced roughly 2.5 million tonnes of copper in 2024, about 11% of the world’s supply. The country stands to benefit indirectly from rising prices. Major foreign companies such as CMOC, Zijin Mining, Ivanhoe Mines, and Glencore dominate Congolese copper production. The state usually holds only a minority stake.
Most copper production in the DRC sells through forward contracts, often with entities linked to producers. These agreements fix prices in advance or use past averages, limiting the government’s ability to immediately profit from price spikes. In contrast, mining companies see their stock values rise directly. The Congolese government has expressed interest in joining marketing processes but has made little concrete progress so far.
On the fiscal front, the DRC collects export royalties. However, these taxes often rely on anticipated average prices, which means the government misses out on sudden price jumps.
Medium-Term Prospects
The 2018 Mining Code’s superprofit tax could become a key tool. This 50% tax applies when commodity prices exceed by 25% the economic assumptions in feasibility studies. For example, if a study assumes $4 per pound ($8,818.5 per tonne), the tax applies from $5 per pound ($11,023 per tonne). With U.S. copper prices currently at $5.60 per pound ($12,368 per tonne), this tax is now relevant.
Copper prices rose 38.8% between January and July 2025, from $4.04 to $5.61 per pound, and nearly doubled over five years. Many projects now exceed the superprofit tax threshold. However, estimating the exact fiscal gain remains challenging.
The long-term impact of the U.S. tariff on the DRC depends on how it influences prices and demand. Analysts agree U.S. copper imports will not drop immediately despite the tariffs. The U.S. lacks the mines, smelters, and refineries to meet its needs alone. Projects like Resolution Copper require 7 to 10 years and billions in investment to come online.
The U.S. imports about 45% of its copper needs. Washington may even increase copper purchases to support its reindustrialization plans. Global demand should grow 3 to 5% annually through 2030, driven by the energy transition.
If the DRC boosts production to 3.5 to 4 million tonnes, as planned with expansions like Kamoa-Kakula, the country could earn $30 to $40 billion annually in export revenues by then.
Georges Auréole Bamba
