The Democratic Republic of Congo is targeting foreign exchange reserves equivalent to at least three months of import cover by 2027 under its program with the International Monetary Fund. A memorandum by the authorities, included in a report published in January 2026, says reaching this goal requires accumulating about $1.5 billion per year.

The World Bank said in a March 2026 report that reserves rose from $6.2 billion at end-2024 to $7.9 billion at end-2025, equivalent to just over 2.5 months of import cover. The IMF said reserves “continued to increase [...] but remain below the recommended adequacy level.”

This trend reflects a broader improvement in the country’s external position. The IMF said higher copper export volumes and favourable prices helped improve the current account in 2025, despite a temporary suspension of cobalt exports. The current account deficit narrowed to around 3.6% of GDP in 2025, from 4.2% in 2024.

The IMF expects this trend to continue. Reserves are forecast to reach about 12.8 weeks of import cover in 2026 and nearly 13 weeks in 2027, bringing them closer to the three-month threshold.

Middle East war

The outlook remains dependent on global conditions. The IMF warned that it is still exposed to commodity price volatility and external shocks. In an analysis published in March 2026, the Fund said tensions in the Middle East are starting to affect global markets, particularly through “rising energy prices and transportation costs.”

Since the start of the year, gas prices have nearly doubled to around $60, while Brent crude has traded at about $100 per barrel, compared with an average of $60 to $70 before the conflict.

These developments could weigh on net fuel-importing countries. For DR Congo, this is a significant vulnerability. The country relies entirely on imports for petroleum products. A sustained rise in oil prices could increase the import bill and slow reserve accumulation by offsetting gains from the improved current account.

Beyond their accounting role, foreign exchange reserves play a central role in DR Congo: they finance imports, help absorb external shocks and support the stability of the Congolese franc in an economy heavily dependent on mining exports.

Pierre Mukoko & Boaz Kabeya