The World Bank expects tin prices to rise by around 10% in 2025, followed by further gains of 3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.
In its October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, the institution forecasts that prices will climb from $30,066 per ton in 2024 to $33,000 in 2025, $34,000 in 2026, and $34,500 in 2027. The outlook for the first two years was revised upward by $2,000 and $2,500, respectively, from the April 2025 projections.
The Bank attributes the rise to persistent tightness in global supply. “The global tin market is likely to remain tight, given the limited pipeline of new projects and continued vulnerability to geopolitical and operational disruptions,” the World Bank said.
Prices are expected to keep increasing despite a partial recovery in supply, particularly in Indonesia, where export license delays have been resolved, and in Myanmar, where several mines idled since 2023 have resumed production. Global demand is set to stay strong, supported by rising output of semiconductors, solar panels, and other energy-transition technologies.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), one of Africa’s leading tin producers, is closely watching these developments. In 2024, the country exported 42,953 tons of tin concentrate, according to official data. Most exports came from Alphamin, operator of the Bisie mine (26,932 tons), with the rest (15,853 tons) from artisanal miners.
Price Gap Limits DRC Revenue
The DRC is benefiting little from the price rally due to the lack of local refining capacity. The World Bank’s benchmark prices refer to refined tin, while the DRC exports only concentrate. This gap limits value addition, reduces earnings for artisanal miners, and cuts tax revenue for both central and provincial governments.
In 2024, Alphamin’s 26,932 tons of concentrate exports were valued at $348.6 million, or roughly $12,946 per ton. By comparison, the 17,865 tons of refined metal derived from that output were sold for $542 million, averaging more than $30,300 per ton, according to company data. The difference highlights the significant fiscal losses faced by the state, which collects royalties on concentrate rather than on refined metal.
Congolese tin exports could decline in 2025 amid a worsening security situation in the east of the country, the main production area. Facing the advance of AFC/M23 rebels, Alphamin suspended operations in March before resuming mid-April but later revised its annual forecast downward. The company now expects to produce 18,500 tons in 2025, compared with an initial target of 20,000 tons.
The ongoing conflict is also likely to cut into artisanal exports through formal channels. A 2022 Global Witness report estimated that about 90% of 3T minerals (tantalum, tin, and tungsten) exported by Rwanda were already being sourced illegally from the DRC.
Pierre Mukoko
