Citigroup analysts expect copper prices to rise above 13,000 dollars a ton by the second quarter of 2026, a forecast released last week as the metal continues to hit record highs on global markets. Copper reached 11,620 dollars on December 5 on the London Metal Exchange.

The three-month contract has gained about 30 percent since the start of the year, driven by tightening mine supply and expectations surrounding trade policy under the Trump administration. Citigroup says both factors could continue to support prices into 2026.

In anticipation of potential higher U.S. tariffs on refined copper, traders have been building inventories in U.S. warehouses. According to Bloomberg, about 60 percent of copper held in exchange-monitored storage is now located in the United States, largely at Comex facilities. The concentration of inventories could further tighten the market at a time when several major mines are facing significant disruption.

Weak Mine Supply

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ivanhoe Mines and its Chinese partners were forced to revise down production at the Kamoa-Kakula complex after a seismic incident in May 2025. The mine was originally expected to produce at least 500,000 tons in 2025 but now targets a maximum of 420,000 tons, a level also anticipated for 2026. Output is projected to recover to 540,000 tons in 2027.

In Indonesia, a landslide at Grasberg, the world’s second-largest copper mine, led Freeport-McMoRan to suspend part of its operations, prompting a 35 percent cut to its 2026 production outlook. Operational challenges at Chile’s Quebrada Blanca mine have also weighed on output forecasts.

By late November, J.P. Morgan estimated that global supply growth would remain weak this year and reach only about 1.4 percent in 2026, nearly 500,000 tons below its earlier projections.

“All in all, we think these unique dynamics of disjointed inventory and acute supply disruptions tightening the copper market add up to a bullish set up for copper, and are enough to push prices above $12,000/mt in the first half of 2026,” said Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at J.P. Morgan.

Debate Over Shortage Risks

However, new U.S. tariffs are not guaranteed, and any easing of trade tensions could relieve pressure on supply. Analysts at Benchmark Minerals have questioned the likelihood of an actual shortage, suggesting the market may be reacting to speculative signals.

Goldman Sachs does not expect a genuine market deficit before 2029 and forecasts that prices are unlikely to remain above 11,000 dollars a ton for long. BloombergNEF, meanwhile, estimates that the copper market fell into structural deficit as early as 2025, a gap it believes could widen to 19 million tons by 2050.

Emiliano Tossou