S&P Global Ratings on Jan. 23 raised its outlook on the Democratic Republic of Congo to positive from stable and affirmed the country’s long-term sovereign rating at B- and its short-term rating at B in both foreign and local currency.

A sovereign rating signals a government’s creditworthiness. The positive outlook indicates the rating could be upgraded if economic and fiscal trends continue to improve. S&P said the revision reflects expectations that the DRC will sustain strong growth, build foreign exchange reserves and improve tax collection through ongoing fiscal reforms, citing progress on both the fiscal and external fronts.

S&P and the International Monetary Fund expect growth to remain above 5% between 2026 and 2028. Government revenue is expected to rise slightly faster than nominal GDP. S&P also pointed to a rebound in foreign exchange reserves, which reached about $7.9 billion at end-December 2025 (around three months of import cover), up from less than one month in 2021.

The agency highlighted tax reforms, including a standardised invoicing system launched in December 2025 to support VAT collection, as well as steps to curb exemptions and subsidies. These measures aim to keep revenue at 14% to 15% of GDP, up from an average of about 11% over the past decade. They are also intended to reduce the state’s reliance on mining, which accounts for more than 40% of government revenue and has driven recent gains in receipts.

Structural vulnerabilities

The outlook change comes as the DRC prepares to tap international debt markets this year, with plans to raise $750 million in its first Eurobond issue. Finance Minister Doudou Fwamba Likunde said the outlook revision and rating affirmation would bolster investor confidence ahead of the planned sale.

However, the positive outlook is unlikely to remove the premium investors typically demand from first-time speculative-grade issuers. Bloomberg said yields could approach double digits depending on the bond’s maturity, citing the 13.7% yield paid by neighbouring Republic of Congo last year.

S&P said the DRC still faces structural vulnerabilities, including dependence on mining, weak institutions and persistent insecurity in the east, which adds to public spending and weighs on investment.

S&P said it could raise the rating if net reserves increase further and fiscal deficits narrow. It added that an upgrade would also require clearer signs of economic diversification and a broader government revenue base.

Pierre Mukoko