Highlights:
• DRC ends cobalt export ban on October 16, implementing quota system capping annual exports at 96,600 tonnes
• China's CMOC faces major pressure as its 95,779 tonnes in 2024 exports nearly match entire sector's new annual limit
• System aims to stabilize global cobalt market while potentially forcing local industrialization and sector consolidation
The Democratic Republic of Congo will end its temporary cobalt export suspension on October 16, 2025, but replace it with a restrictive quota system "until further notice" that puts enormous pressure on Chinese mining giant CMOC. The regulatory authority ARECOMS announced the new framework will cap total annual exports at levels not seen since before the commodity price boom.
For the final quarter of 2025, only 18,125 tonnes of cobalt exports will be permitted: 3,625 tonnes in October, followed by 7,250 tonnes each in November and December. The system extends through 2026 and 2027 with an annual ceiling of 87,000 tonnes for direct mining company exports, plus 9,600 tonnes of "strategic" quotas allocated at ARECOMS' discretion.
The 96,600-tonne annual limit matches 2020 export levels, before international prices soared to $85,524 per tonne in May 2022. "The conditions for obtaining and allocating quotas will be detailed in a specific decision that will be notified to market players," ARECOMS stated, though basic quotas will be allocated based on historical export volumes.
Winners and Losers in the New Order
The quotas immediately hurt China's CMOC, whose Congolese subsidiaries Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu exported 95,779 tonnes in 2024—nearly matching the entire sector's new annual allowance. The company, backed by battery giant CATL, depends heavily on Congolese cobalt to meet China's surging electric vehicle demand. CMOC's metals trading arm already declared force majeure on cobalt supply contracts in June following the export suspension.
Glencore faces less severe constraints. The Swiss commodity giant's 75% stake in Kamoto Copper Company generated around 31,000 tonnes of cobalt exports in 2024, with 45,000 tonnes forecast for 2025. Glencore actually supports the regulation, believing it will end disorderly sales and better balance supply with demand. Its diversified metals portfolio also provides greater resilience to cobalt market volatility.
Small-scale producers appear most vulnerable. Around 40 companies exceeding 100 tonnes annually must now share limited quotas, potentially triggering financial difficulties and sector consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, favoring stronger players.
Strategic Power Play With Global Implications
The quotas will significantly disrupt global cobalt supply chains. China alone expects to consume 47,000 tonnes in 2026 and 51,000 tonnes in 2027 for electric vehicles, aerospace, and renewable energy applications. The DRC restrictions will likely strengthen long-term bilateral contracts while reducing spot market liquidity, disadvantaging Korean, Japanese, and European buyers.
Beyond market stabilization, the DRC appears to be leveraging cobalt export control to force local industrialization. Officials may condition access to strategic quotas on investments in battery processing and manufacturing facilities within the country, transforming the world's largest cobalt producer into a potential battery manufacturing hub.
Georges Auréole Bamba
