Goldman Sachs scaled up its 2025 forecast for copper prices, from $10,100 to $10,160 per tonne average. The revision is largely due to recent economic stimulus measures in China that are boosting demand for copper.

A few weeks ago, the analysis firm Fastmarkets estimated that copper prices could average $10,265 per tonne this quarter. This prediction integrates China's 3.95 trillion yuan ($560 billion) stimulus plan announced in September to tackle the slowing economy, paired with the interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

It’s still unclear how these forecasts will affect mining revenues in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world’s second-largest copper producer in 2023. Several factors must be considered, including contracts between the government and mining companies, agreements between those companies and their customers, and the country’s copper production levels.

In its 2025 Finance Bill presented to Parliament, the DRC government predicts a copper price of $7,909.57. The government noted that copper prices rose from $8,726.9 per tonne in the first half of 2023 to $9,215.84 per tonne during the same period in 2024, a 5.6% increase. Goldman Sachs' forecast thus exceeds the government projection by $2,250.43.

It should be recalled, however, that earlier this month, Ivanhoe Mines lowered its production forecast for Kamoa-Kakula, the largest copper mine in the DRC. The company attributed the change to instability in the power grid, among others. Ivanhoe now aims for a maximum production of 450,000 tonnes of copper concentrate in 2024, down from its previous target of 490,000 tonnes.

Kamoa-Kakula is among the mines that helped boost the DRC's copper outputs and mining revenues in recent years. While plans have been announced to address power supply issues by 2025, it remains uncertain how effectively these will be implemented and how they will impact next year’s production.

Louis-Nino Kansoun