Indonesia could snatch the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) spot as the world’s leading cobalt producer in the 2040s. The International Energy Agency (IEA) made the forecast in its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 report published on May 21.

According to the Cobalt Institute, the DRC accounted for 76% of global primary cobalt supply in 2024, but the IEA forecasts a 45% decline in Congolese cobalt production during the 2030s “due to declining ore quality”.

In contrast, Indonesia—the world’s leading nickel producer, with cobalt as a by-product—is projected to increase its cobalt output by nearly 80% by 2040, surpassing the DRC. This outlook aligns with the Cobalt Institute’s Cobalt Market Report 2024, which predicts the DRC’s share of global cobalt supply will fall from 76% in 2024 to 65% by 2030, while Indonesia’s share rises from 12% to 22%.

While the projected plunge could reduce the DRC’s influence over the cobalt supply chain, its impact on mining revenues is uncertain. In 2022, cobalt accounted for about 21% of the DRC’s exports, according to the Central Bank of Congo. However, ongoing economic diversification and waning global demand for cobalt could lessen the metal’s importance to the Congolese economy even before it loses its production leadership.

The electric vehicle market—the primary driver of cobalt demand—is showing signs of slowdown. Additionally, energy storage projects increasingly favor lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries over traditional cobalt- or nickel-based batteries. Martin Jackson, a raw materials consultant at CRU, notes a “monumental drop in the intensity of nickel and cobalt use in battery demand.”

Kinshasa’s response to these shifts remains to be seen. The government is currently focusing on strengthening the country’s position in downstream segments of the value chain, such as refining and battery materials production, as potential buffers against the anticipated shocks.

This article was initially published in French by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou (Ecofin Agency)

Edited in English by Ola Schad Akinocho