The price of cobalt oxide on the Shanghai Metals Exchange rose to €16,640 per tonne (excluding tax) on February 28, 2025, up 1.46% over five days. The dynamic, reviewed by Bankable, was also observed on the London Metal Exchange, where April 2026 cobalt oxide contracts climbed 5%, trading at $22,246.19 per tonne, up from the current $21,153.
This surge follows the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) announcement on February 22 of a four-month suspension of cobalt exports, a move aimed at addressing oversupply and stabilizing prices.
The DRC, which supplies 75% of the world’s cobalt oxide, has triggered market uncertainty with this decision, as buyers anticipate tighter supply amid growing demand. Analysts at the Shanghai Metals Exchange attribute the price acceleration to reactions from cobalt processing industries, which temporarily halted refined cobalt bids to assess raw ore availability. S&P Global had already forecasted a reduction in surplus cobalt stocks for 2025, but the Congolese export suspension has amplified this upward price correction.
No Supply Deficit before 2030?
The recent suspension is part of broader efforts by the Congolese Regulator of Strategic Minerals Markets, ARECOMS, to influence global supply-demand dynamics. The watchdog plans to assess the measure’s impact in three months to determine whether to maintain, adjust, or lift it. Meanwhile, observers anticipate the reaction of major producers like China’s CMOC, whose investments in the Kisanfu mine have contributed significantly to the global oversupply of copper.
The DRC earns a lot from selling its minerals and taxes and royalties from its mining assets. Therefore, higher cobalt prices are critical for meeting the country’s budgetary revenue targets and financing development ambitions.
However, at the end of 2024, some observers had projected that it would take some time for prices to rise sustainably. They said there should be no supply deficit before 2030. Last December, Joel Crane of S&P Global, predicted that while electric vehicle demand will drive an 11% annual increase in cobalt consumption through 2030, supply growth will lag at just 4% annually due to limited new exploration projects in the DRC. “Although the DRC has added 60,000 tonnes of cobalt since 2022, its contribution is expected to gradually decline,” Crane noted. Nick Burroughs, Sales Director at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, shares this view.
EGC Steps Up
While the impact of the recent forecasts on prices in the market for direct cobalt purchases, especially artisanal mining, this sector could face supply chain-related challenges. Artisanal mining contributes 15-30% of the DRC’s cobalt production.
According to several media outlets, the ARECOMS has recently clarified that even after the export suspension is lifted, artisanal cobalt can only be sold to Entreprise Générale de Cobalt (EGC), a state-owned subsidiary of Gécamines. With this in mind, EGC’s managing director Éric Kalala, quoted by Bloomberg, said the firm plans to purchase artisanal cobalt during the suspension to support miners and strengthen EGC’s role as an exclusive buyer. At the same time, the state-owned entity is committed to fostering a fairer supply chain while boosting its revenues. However, questions remain about whether EGC has the resources and capacity to manage these operations effectively in a market that demands immediacy. Indeed, artisanal miners often want to quickly sell and regularly request advances to finance their activities.
This article was initially published in French by Georges Auréole Bamba
Edited in English by Ola Schad Akinocho
